Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions

Now showing items 721-740 of 3043

    • Combination of Multimodel Probabilistic Forecasts Using an Optimal Weighting System 

      Chen, Li-Chuan Gwen;van den Dool, Huug (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractIn this study, an optimal weighting system is developed that combines multiple seasonal probabilistic forecasts in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). The system is applied to predict temperature and ...

    • An Eulerian Framework for Event-Based Pattern Verification 

      Nachamkin, Jason E.;Jin, Yi (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractWhen consulting a forecast, users often ask some variant of the following questions: Will an event of interest occur? If so, when will it occur? How long will it last? How intense will it be? Standard verification ...

    • A Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Scheme Based on the Selective Consensus of Ensemble Prediction Systems 

      Zhang, Xiping;Yu, Hui (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractSelective consensus and a grand ensemble based on an ensemble prediction system (EPS) have been found to be effective in improving deterministic tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, while little attention has ...

    • Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance Using the Early Stage Dvorak Analysis and Global Ensembles 

      Yamaguchi, Munehiko;Koide, Naohisa (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractTC genesis guidance using the early stage Dvorak analysis technique (EDA) and global ensembles is investigated as one of the statistical?dynamical TC genesis guidance schemes. The EDA is a scheme that enables the ...

    • Verification of Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 

      Leonardo, Nicholas M.;Colle, Brian A. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractNorth Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from four ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are verified using the National Hurricane Center?s (NHC) best tracks for the 2008?15 seasons. The 1?5-day forecasts are ...

    • Polarimetric Radar and Surface-Based Precipitation-Type Observations of Ice Pellet to Freezing Rain Transitions 

      Tobin, Dana M.;Kumjian, Matthew R. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractRecent studies document a polarimetric radar signature of refreezing. The signature is characterized by a low-level enhancement in differential reflectivity ZDR and a decrease in the copolar correlation coefficient ...

    • How Much Does “Backing Aloft” Actually Impact a Supercell? 

      Parker, Matthew D. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractAmong forecasters and storm chasers, there is a common perception that hodographs with counterclockwise curvature or kinking in the midlevels (sometimes called backing aloft or veer?back?veer profiles) are unfavorable ...

    • A Features-Based Assessment of the Evolution of Warm Season Precipitation Forecasts from the HRRR Model over Three Years of Development 

      Bytheway, Janice L.;Kummerow, Christian D.;Alexander, Curtis (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractThe High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model has been the National Weather Service?s (NWS) operational rapid update model since 2014. The HRRR has undergone continual development, including updates to the Weather ...

    • Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States 

      Vaughan, Matthew T.;Tang, Brian H.;Bosart, Lance F. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractThis study identifies high-impact severe weather events with poor predictive skill over the northeast United States using Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks. The objectives are to build a climatology ...

    • Untitled 

      Han, Jongil;Wang, Weiguo;Kwon, Young C.;Hong, Song-You;Tallapragada, Vijay;Yang, Fanglin (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractThe current operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) cumulus convection schemes are updated with a scale-aware parameterization where the cloud mass flux decreases with increasing grid resolution. The ratio ...

    • Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Eye Formation and Dissipation in Infrared Imagery 

      Knaff, John A.;DeMaria, Robert T. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractThe development of an infrared (IR; specifically near 11 ?m) eye probability forecast scheme for tropical cyclones is described. The scheme was developed from an eye detection algorithm that used a linear discriminant ...

    • Machine Learning for Real-Time Prediction of Damaging Straight-Line Convective Wind 

      Lagerquist, Ryan;McGovern, Amy;Smith, Travis (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractThunderstorms in the United States cause over 100 deaths and $10 billion (U.S. dollars) in damage per year, much of which is attributable to straight-line (nontornadic) wind. This paper describes a machine-learning ...

    • Seasonal Variations in Severe Weather Forecast Skill in an Experimental Convection-Allowing Model 

      Sobash, Ryan A.;Kain, John S. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractEight years of daily, experimental, deterministic, convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts, produced by the National Severe Storms Laboratory, were evaluated to assess their ability at predicting severe weather ...

    • Self-Organizing Maps for the Investigation of Tornadic Near-Storm Environments 

      Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K.;Richardson, Yvette P.;Dean, Andrew R.;Thompson, Richard L.;Smith, Bryan T. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractIn this work, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to investigate patterns of favorable near-storm environmental parameters in a 13-yr climatology of 14 814 tornado events and 44 961 tornado warnings across the ...

    • Untitled 

      Zhou, Xiaqiong;Zhu, Yuejian;Hou, Dingchen;Luo, Yan;Peng, Jiayi;Wobus, Richard (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractA new version of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS, v11) is tested and compared with the operational version (v10) in a 2-yr parallel run. The breeding-based scheme with ensemble transformation and rescaling ...

    • A Fetch-Based Statistical Method to Bias Correct and Downscale Wind Speed over Unresolved Water Bodies 

      Holman, Bryan P.;Lazarus, Steven M.;Splitt, Michael E. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractThis paper presents a method to bias correct and downscale wind speed over water bodies that are unresolved by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and analyses. The dependency of wind speeds over water bodies ...

    • Radiance Preprocessing for Assimilation in the Hourly Updating Rapid Refresh Mesoscale Model: A Study Using AIRS Data 

      Lin, Haidao;Weygandt, Stephen S.;Lim, Agnes H. N.;Hu, Ming;Brown, John M.;Benjamin, Stanley G. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractThis study describes the initial application of radiance bias correction and channel selection in the hourly updated Rapid Refresh model. For this initial application, data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ...

    • Storm-Based Probabilistic Hail Forecasting with Machine Learning Applied to Convection-Allowing Ensembles 

      Gagne, David John;McGovern, Amy;Haupt, Sue Ellen;Sobash, Ryan A.;Williams, John K.;Xue, Ming (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractForecasting severe hail accurately requires predicting how well atmospheric conditions support the development of thunderstorms, the growth of large hail, and the minimal loss of hail mass to melting before reaching ...

    • Ensemble-Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models 

      Salighehdar, Amin;Ye, Ziwen;Liu, Mingzhe;Florescu, Ionut;Blumberg, Alan F. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractAccurate prediction of storm surge is a difficult problem. Most forecast systems produce multiple possible forecasts depending on the variability in weather conditions, possible temperature levels, winds, etc. ...

    • Tornado Damage Rating Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data 

      Thompson, Richard L.;Smith, Bryan T.;Grams, Jeremy S.;Dean, Andrew R.;Picca, Joseph C.;Cohen, Ariel E.;Leitman, Elizabeth M.;Gleason, Aaron M.;Marsh, Patrick T. (American Meteorological Society, 2017)
      AbstractPrevious work with observations from the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) network in the United States has shown that the probability of damage from a tornado, as represented by EF-scale ratings, increases as low-level rotational ...