Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 701-720 of 3043
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Initiation of Convective Storms at Low-Level Mesoscale Boundaries in Southwestern Ontario
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe relationship between low-level mesoscale boundaries and convective storm initiation was investigated in southwestern Ontario, Canada. The influence of lake-breeze fronts, a type of boundary that frequently ... -
The Deadliest Tornado (EF4) in the Past 40 Years in China
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractAn EF4 supercellular tornado hit Funing County, Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, China, from about 1410 to 1500 local standard time 23 June 2016, causing 98 fatalities and 846 injuries. It was the deadliest tornado in ... -
Statistical–Dynamical Typhoon Intensity Predictions in the Western North Pacific Using Track Pattern Clustering and Ocean Coupling Predictors
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractA statistical?dynamical model for predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity has been developed using a track-pattern clustering (TPC) method and ocean-coupled potential predictors. Based on the fuzzy c-means ... -
How Well Can the Met Office Unified Model Forecast Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific?
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractConvection-permitting numerical weather prediction models are a key tool for forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensities, intensity changes, and precipitation. The Met Office has been routinely running a regional ... -
Diagnosing Conditions Associated with Large Intensity Forecast Errors in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractUnderstanding and forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change continues to be a paramount challenge for the research and operational communities, partly because of inherent systematic biases contained in ... -
Observations of Gravity Waves with High-Pass Filtering in the New Generation of Geostationary Imagers and Their Relation to Aircraft Turbulence
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThis paper introduces a method of image filtering for viewing gravity waves in satellite imagery, which is particularly timely to the advent of the next-generation Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) and the Advanced ... -
A Nonparametric Ensemble Postprocessing Approach for Short-Range Visibility Predictions in Data-Sparse Areas
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis work develops and tests the viability of obtaining skillful short-range (<20 h) visibility predictions using statistical postprocessing of a 4-km, 10-member Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ensemble ... -
A Description of the Real-Time HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThis study discusses the development of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. The HCCA technique relies on the ... -
The Impact of Vertical Resolution in the Assimilation of GPS Radio Occultation Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe sensitivity of GPS radio occultation (GPSRO) bending angle assimilation to vertical resolution was studied within a global three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system. The sensitivity experiments ... -
Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractRainfall observations in the Pigeon River basin of the southern Appalachian Mountains over a 5-yr period (2009?14) are examined to investigate the synoptic patterns responsible for downstream flooding events as ... -
Comparative Assessment of Two Objective Forecast Models for Cases of Persistent Extreme Precipitation Events in the Yangtze–Huai River Valley in Summer 2016
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractTwo persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) that caused severe flooding in the Yangtze?Huai River valley in summer 2016 presented a significant challenge to operational forecasters. To provide forecasters ... -
Evaluation of Cool-Season Extratropical Cyclones in a Multimodel Ensemble for Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Ocean
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThis paper evaluates the extratropical cyclones within three operational global ensembles [the 20-member Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), 20-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and ... -
Predicting Large Ocean Wave Events Characterized by Bimodal Energy Spectra in the Presence of a Low-Level Southerly Wind Feature
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThree large wave events are simulated with WaveWatch III using different wind inputs and physics packages. The modeled output, including spectral shape and bulk parameter time series, are compared with National ... -
Potential Influence of the East Asia–Pacific Teleconnection Pattern on Persistent Precipitation in South China: Implications of Atypical Yangtze River Valley Cases
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractIn this study, cases of the East Asia?Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern not responsible for persistent precipitation processes in the Yangtze River valley (YRV) have been investigated. The results suggest that ... -
Improvements in Hurricane Intensity Forecasts from a Multimodel Superensemble Utilizing a Generalized Neural Network Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractForecasting tropical storm intensities is a very challenging issue. In recent years, dynamical models have improved considerably. However, for intensity forecasts more improvement is necessary. Dynamical models ... -
Bayesian Model Averaging for Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasts Using Wind Speed and Direction
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractIn this paper, probabilistic wind speed forecasts are constructed based on ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts for both wind speed and wind direction. Including other NWP variables in addition to ... -
Untitled
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) is being extended from 16 to 35 days to cover the subseasonal period, bridging weather and seasonal forecasts. In this study, the impact of SST forcing on the extended-range ... -
Considerations for Phased-Array Radar Data Use within the National Weather Service
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThirty National Weather Service forecasters worked with 1-, 2-, and 5-min phased-array radar (PAR) volumetric updates for a variety of weather events during the 2015 Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment. ... -
An Assessment of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for Water Vapor Transport during Boreal Winter
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractEarly awareness of extreme precipitation can provide the time necessary to make adequate event preparations. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), one tool that condenses the forecast ... -
Comparison of Rip Current Hazard Likelihood Forecasts with Observed Rip Current Speeds
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractAlthough rip currents are a major hazard for beachgoers, the relationship between the danger to swimmers and the physical properties of rip current circulation is not well understood. Here, the relationship between ...