Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 681-700 of 3043
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Observations of Right-Moving Supercell Motion Forecast Errors
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractTwo shear-based supercell motion forecast methods are assessed to understand how each method performs under differing environmental conditions for observed right-moving supercells. Accordingly, a 573-case observational ... -
Climatological Estimates of Hourly Tornado Probability for the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractWhile there has been an abundance of research dedicated to the seasonal climatology of severe weather, very little has been done to study hazardous weather probabilities on smaller scales. To this end, local hourly ... -
An Evaluation of NDFD Weather Forecasts for Wildland Fire Behavior Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractWildland fire managers in the United States currently utilize the gridded forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) to make fire behavior predictions across complex landscapes during large ... -
Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractAccumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, the performance of nine operational global ensemble ... -
Comparing Forecaster Eye Movements during the Warning Decision Process
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractAn eye-tracking experiment was conducted to examine whether differences in forecasters? eye movements provide further insight into how radar update speed impacts their warning decision process. In doing so, this ... -
Improving NCEP HWRF Simulations of Surface Wind and Inflow Angle in the Eyewall Area
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis note describes a modification of the boundary layer parameterization scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model, which improves the simulations of low-level wind and surface inflow ... -
Cold-Season Tornadoes: Climatological and Meteorological Insights
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractTornadoes that occur during the cold season, defined here as November?February (NDJF), pose many societal risks, yet less attention has been given to their climatological trends and variability than their warm-season ... -
A Scheme to Assimilate “No Rain” Observations from Doppler Radar
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractRadar reflectivity observations contain valuable information on precipitation and have been assimilated into numerical weather prediction models for improved microphysics initialization. However, low-reflectivity ... -
Improving Predictions of Precipitation Type at the Surface: Description and Verification of Two New Products from the ECMWF Ensemble
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe medium-range ensemble (ENS) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) is used to create two new products intended to face the challenges of winter ... -
Modeling the Evolution and Life Cycle of Radiative Cold Pools and Fog
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractDespite an increased understanding of the physical processes involved, forecasting radiative cold pools and their associated meteorological phenomena (e.g., fog and freezing rain) remains a challenging problem in ... -
Understanding Biases in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Error
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe characteristics of 24-h official forecast errors (OFEs) of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are analyzed over the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and western North Pacific. The OFE is demonstrated to be strongly ... -
Probabilistic Verification of Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractEight years? worth of day 1 and 4.5 years? worth of day 2?3 probabilistic convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are converted to probability grids spanning the continental United States (CONUS). ... -
A Numerical Study on the Extreme Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractIn October 2015 Hurricane Patricia stormed through the eastern Pacific, taking its place as the strongest hurricane in recorded history when its intensity reached a record breaking 185 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s?1). ... -
The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model: Incorporation of Total Lightning and Validation
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe empirical Probability of Severe (ProbSevere) model, developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), automatically ... -
Statistical Prediction of Waterspout Probability for the Florida Keys
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractA statistical model of waterspout probability was developed for wet-season (June?September) days over the Florida Keys. An analysis was performed on over 200 separate variables derived from Key West 1200 UTC daily ... -
Evaluating the Impact of Improvement in the Horizontal Diffusion Parameterization on Hurricane Prediction in the Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractImproving physical parameterizations in forecast models is essential for hurricane prediction. This study documents the upgrade of horizontal diffusion parameterization in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting ... -
A 10-Year Survey of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Lightning Bursts and Their Relationship to Intensity Change
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThis study seeks to reconcile discrepancies between previous studies analyzing the relationship between lightning and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. Inner-core lightning bursts (ICLBs) were identified from ... -
Evaluation of the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Downscaling for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Vietnam
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis study investigates the ability to apply National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) products and their downscaling by using the Regional Climate Model version 4.2 (RegCM4.2) ... -
Discrimination of Mature and Dissipating Severe-Wind-Producing MCSs with Layer-Lifting Indices
(American Meteorological Society, 2017)AbstractThe environmental factors that drive the dissipation of linear severe-wind-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are investigated. Layer-lifting indices are emphasized, which measure convective instability ... -
Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate on Sea Surface Temperature, Storm Intensity, and Size in the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis study extends the statistical analysis on the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate (IR) on sea surface temperature (SST), storm initial intensity (maximum sustained surface wind speed Vmax), ...