Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 661-680 of 3043
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CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2018) -
Detection of Severe Weather Events in a High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) are commonly used to compare an ensemble forecast to a reference model climatology, in order to measure the severity of the current weather forecast. In ... -
Combined Use of Satellite Observations and Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft Dropwindsondes for Improved Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis study demonstrates that Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system dropwindsondes and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations can be complementary in sampling a tropical cyclone (TC). The assimilation of ... -
Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis study presents the development and testing of two statistical models that simulate tornado potential and wind speed. This study reports on the first-ever development of two multiple regression?based models to ... -
Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction and MJO in the S2S Dataset
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractSubseasonal probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is investigated here using models from the Seasonal to Subseasonal (S2S) Prediction dataset. Forecasts are produced for basin-wide TC occurrence ... -
Evaluating the Experimental High-Resolution Rapid Refresh–Alaska Modeling System Using USArray Pressure Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh?Alaska (HRRR-AK) modeling system provides 3-km horizontal resolution and 0?36-h forecast guidance for weather conditions over Alaska. This study evaluated the experimental version ... -
Classification of Extreme Cold Incursions over South America
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractCold-air incursions across South America present a variety of problems, sometimes by advancing to the Amazon basin and causing agricultural losses related to extreme low-temperature events. The synoptic conditions ... -
Spatial Verification of Ensemble Precipitation: An Ensemble Version of SAL
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractSpatial verification methods able to handle high-resolution ensemble forecasts and analysis ensembles are increasingly required because of the increasing development of such ensembles. An ensemble extension of the ... -
The Impact of the Nocturnal Transition on the Lifetime and Evolution of Supercell Thunderstorms in the Great Plains
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractPredicting the evolution of supercell thunderstorms during and after the evening transition is a known challenge due to an incomplete understanding of how these events evolve in response to associated environmental ... -
Reducing TC Position Uncertainty in an Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System: A Case Study of Typhoon Fanapi (2010)
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractEnsemble-based data assimilation (EDA) has been used for tropical cyclone (TC) analysis and prediction with some success. However, the TC position spread determines the structure of the TC-related background error ... -
Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates, Forecasts, and Error Forecasts for the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractIn 2016, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center extended forecasts of gale-force and other wind radii to 5 days. That effort and a thrust to perform postseason analysis of gale-force wind radii for the ?best tracks? (the ... -
Advancing from Convection-Allowing NWP to Warn-on-Forecast: Evidence of Progress
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) program, driven by advanced data assimilation and ensemble design of numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, seeks to advance 0?3-h NWP to aid National Weather Service warnings for ... -
A Preliminary Examination of WRF Ensemble Prediction of Convective Mode Evolution
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractAccurately simulating convective mode evolution can assist forecasters in the severe weather warning process. A few prior studies have examined the skill of simulating convective modes using single, deterministic ... -
Validation of Mountain Precipitation Forecasts from the Convection-Permitting NCAR Ensemble and Operational Forecast Systems over the Western United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Abstract Convection-permitting ensembles can capture the large spatial variability and quantify the inherent uncertainty of precipitation in areas of complex terrain; however, such systems remain largely untested over the ... -
Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Structure Forecasts in a High-Resolution Version of the Multiscale GFDL fvGFS Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractA nested version of the cubed-sphere finite-volume dynamical core (FV3) with GFS physics (fvGFS) is capable of tropical cyclone (TC) prediction across multiple space and time scales, from subseasonal prediction to ... -
A Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclones under the Influence of Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis study extends an earlier dynamical initialization (DI) scheme for tropical cyclones (TCs) to situations under the influence of terrain. When any terrain lower than 1 km exists between 150 and 450 km from the ... -
Improving the Explicit Prediction of Freezing Rain in a Kilometer-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractA freezing rain event, in which the Meteorological Centre of Canada?s 2.5-km numerical weather prediction system significantly underpredicted the quantity of freezing rain, is examined. The prediction system models ... -
On the Use of Ocean Dynamic Temperature for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) are metrics used to incorporate the ocean?s influence on hurricane intensification into the National Hurricane Center?s Statistical Hurricane ... -
African Easterly Wave Forecast Verification and Its Relation to Convective Errors within the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractAfrican easterly waves (AEWs) are the primary synoptic-scale weather feature found in sub-Saharan Africa during boreal summer, yet there have been few studies documenting the performance of operational ensemble ... -
Blended Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Combining Climatological Frequencies with NSSL–WRF Ensemble Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractAttempts at probabilistic tornado forecasting using convection-allowing models (CAMs) have thus far used CAM attribute [e.g., hourly maximum 2?5-km updraft helicity (UH)] thresholds, treating them as binary ...