Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 641-660 of 3043
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Predicting the Inland Penetration of Long-Lake-Axis-Parallel Snowbands
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractPredicting the inland penetration of lake-effect long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) snowbands is crucial to public safety because LLAP bands can produce hazardous weather well downwind of the parent lake. Accordingly, ... -
Early Warnings of Severe Convection Using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractECMWF provides the ensemble-based extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) products to facilitate forecasting severe weather in the medium range. Exploiting the ingredients-based method of forecasting ... -
Wind Forecasts for Rocket and Balloon Launches at the Esrange Space Center Using the WRF Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Abstract High-altitude balloons and rockets are regularly launched at the Esrange Space Center (ESC) in Kiruna, Sweden, with the aim of retrieving atmospheric data for meteorological and space studies in the Arctic region. ... -
Impact of UAS Global Hawk Dropsonde Data on Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Forecasts in 2016
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractA preliminary investigation into the impact of dropsonde observations from the Global Hawk (GH) on tropical and extratropical forecasts is performed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ... -
Development of an Operational Convective Nowcasting Algorithm Using Raindrop Size Sorting Information from Polarimetric Radar Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractRaindrop size sorting is a ubiquitous microphysical occurrence in precipitating systems. Owing to the greater terminal fall speed of larger particles, a raindrop?s fall trajectory can be sensitive to its size, and ... -
Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence: Updates for the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis note describes an updated tropical cyclone vortex climatology for the western North Pacific version of the operational wind radii climatology and persistence (i.e., CLIPER) model. The update addresses known ... -
The Relationship between Severe Weather Warnings, Storm Reports, and Storm Cell Frequency in and around Several Large Metropolitan Areas
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe spatial distribution of storm-based severe weather warnings, local storm reports, and radar-detected storm cells around six large cities in the central United States is examined from October 2007 to May 2017. ... -
Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractAn object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast ... -
Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Using Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and Structural Features
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) is a multiple regression model for forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity [both central pressure (Pmin) and maximum wind speed (Vmax)]. To further ... -
An Operational Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid for the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis work describes tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecast aids designed for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basin and for use at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Two statistical methods, linear ... -
Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractWhen extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protecting life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource ... -
Quantifying the Separation of Enhanced ZDR and KDP Regions in Nonsupercell Tornadic Storms
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractTornadoes associated with nonsupercell storms present unique challenges for forecasters. These tornadic storms, although often not as violent or deadly as supercells, occur disproportionately during the overnight ... -
Environmental Factors and Internal Processes Contributing to the Interrupted Rapid Decay of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe objective in this study is to demonstrate how two unique datasets from the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI-15) field experiment can be used to diagnose the environmental and internal factors contributing to the ... -
Statistical Regression Scheme for Intensity Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThis study proposes a statistical regression scheme to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h in the northwestern Pacific region. This study utilizes best track data from the ... -
Rapid-Scan Radar Observations of an Oklahoma Tornadic Hailstorm Producing Giant Hail
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractRapid-scan radar observations of a supercell that produced near-record size hail in Oklahoma are examined. Data from the National Weather Radar Testbed Phased Array Radar (PAR) in Norman, Oklahoma, are used to study ... -
Development of a Human–Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractProviding advance warning for impending severe convective weather events (i.e., tornadoes, hail, wind) fundamentally requires an ability to predict and/or detect these hazards and subsequently communicate their ... -
Multivariate Self-Organizing Map Approach to Classifying Supercell Tornado Environments Using Near-Storm, Low-Level Wind and Thermodynamic Profiles
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractSelf-organizing maps (SOMs) have been shown to be a useful tool in classifying meteorological data. This paper builds on earlier work employing SOMs to classify model analysis proximity soundings from the near-storm ... -
Estimating Maximum Significant Wave Height and Dominant Wave Period inside Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractMaking use of the fetch- and duration-limited nature of wind-wave growth inside tropical cyclones, an algorithm is developed to estimate the maximum significant wave height and dominant wave period of surface waves ... -
Impact of Adaptively Thinned AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on Tropical Cyclone Representation in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractA simple adaptive thinning methodology for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances is evaluated through a combination of observing system experiments (OSEs) and adjoint methodologies. The OSEs are performed ... -
Downslope Windstorms of San Diego County. Part II: Physics Ensemble Analyses and Gust Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe ?Santa Ana? winds of Southern California represent a high-impact weather event because their dry, fast winds can significantly elevate the wildfire threat. This high-resolution numerical study of six events of ...