Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 621-640 of 3043
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Using Operational Radar to Identify Deep Hail Accumulations from Thunderstorms
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Thunderstorms that produce surface hail accumulations, sometimes as large as 60 cm in depth, have significantly affected the residents of the Front Range and High Plains of Colorado and Wyoming by creating hazardous road ... -
Skill Evaluation of Extended-Range Forecasts of Rainfall and Temperature over the Meteorological Subdivisions of India
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Under the National Monsoon Mission Project initiated by the government of India?s Ministry of Earth Sciences, an indigenous dynamical ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed at the Indian Institute of Tropical ... -
Seasonal Forecasting of Wind and Waves in the North Atlantic Using a Grand Multimodel Ensemble
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)This study assesses the skill of multimodel forecasts of 10-m wind speed, significant wave height, and mean wave period in the North Atlantic for the winter months. The 10-m winds from four North American multimodel ensemble ... -
C-band Dual-Polarization Radar Signatures of Wet Downbursts around Cape Canaveral, Florida
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Wind warnings are the second-most-frequent advisory issued by the U.S. Air Force?s 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral, Florida. Given the challenges associated with nowcasting convection in Florida during the ... -
A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Framework for Correcting Reporting Bias in the U.S. Tornado Database
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado database, generated from NCEI?s Storm Data publication, is indispensable for assessing U.S. tornado risk and investigating tornado?climate connections. Maximizing the value of this ... -
The Development of the North Pacific Jet Phase Diagram as an Objective Tool to Monitor the State and Forecast Skill of the Upper-Tropospheric Flow Pattern
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)Previous studies employing empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of upper-tropospheric zonal wind anomalies have identified the leading modes of North Pacific jet (NPJ) variability that prevail on synoptic time ... -
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Impact Assessment from the Assimilation of Hourly Visible, Shortwave, and Clear-Air Water Vapor Atmospheric Motion Vectors in HWRF
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)The assimilation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) provides important wind information to conventional data-lacking oceanic regions, where tropical cyclones spend most of their lifetimes. Three new AMV types, shortwave ... -
An Evaluation of Clouds and Precipitation in Convection-Permitting Forecasts for South Africa
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)Since 2016, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has been running convective-scale simulations to assist with forecast operations across southern Africa. These simulations are run with a tropical configuration of the ... -
Assessments of Surface Winds and Waves from the NCEP Ensemble Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe error characteristics of surface waves and winds produced by ensemble forecasts issued by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are analyzed as a function of forecast range and severity. Eight error ... -
Near-Storm Environments of Outbreak and Isolated Tornadoes
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractBetween 2003 and 2015, there were 5343 outbreak tornadoes and 9389 isolated tornadoes reported in the continental United States. Here, the near-storm environmental parameter-space distributions of these two categories ... -
Impacts of Assimilating Smartphone Pressure Observations on Forecast Skill during Two Case Studies in the Pacific Northwest
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractOver a half-billion smartphones are now capable of measuring atmospheric pressure, potentially providing a global surface observing network of unprecedented density and coverage. An earlier study by the authors ... -
2017 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from a High-Resolution Version of the GFDL fvGFS Model: Evaluation of Track, Intensity, and Structure
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had several high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs), including multiple cases of rapid intensification (RI). A high-resolution nested version of the GFDL finite-volume dynamical core ... -
CFSv2 Monthly Forecasts of Tornado and Hail Activity
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractClimate Forecast System, version 2, predictions of monthly U.S. severe thunderstorm activity are analyzed for the period 1982?2016. Forecasts are based on a tornado environmental index and a hail environmental ... -
Multiweek Prediction Skill Assessment of Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the CFSv2
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractSkillful Arctic Sea ice prediction is becoming increasingly important because of its societal, industrial, and economic impacts over the polar regions and potential influence on lower-latitude weather and climate ... -
AMS Journals Welcome Review Articles
(American Meteorological Society, 2018) -
On the Extraordinary Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Part I: Numerical Experiments
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractHurricane Patricia (2015) broke records in both peak intensity and rapid intensification (RI) rate over the eastern Pacific basin. All of the then-operational models predicted less than half of its extraordinary ... -
An Adaptive Approach for the Calculation of Ensemble Gridpoint Probabilities
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractTraditional ensemble probabilities are computed based on the number of members that exceed a threshold at a given point divided by the total number of members. This approach has been employed for many years in ... -
Impacts of Modifications to a Local Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme on Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet Environment
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is influential in the initiation and evolution of nocturnal convection through the northward advection of heat and moisture, as well as convergence in the region of the LLJ nose. ... -
NowCastMIX: Automatic Integrated Warnings for Severe Convection on Nowcasting Time Scales at the German Weather Service
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractNowCastMIX is the core nowcasting guidance system at the German Weather Service. It automatically monitors several systems to capture rapidly developing high-impact mesoscale convective events, including 3D radar ... -
The Above-Anvil Cirrus Plume: An Important Severe Weather Indicator in Visible and Infrared Satellite Imagery
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractIntense tropopause-penetrating updrafts and gravity wave breaking generate cirrus plumes that reside above the primary anvil. These ?above anvil cirrus plumes? (AACPs) exhibit unique temperature and reflectance ...