Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 601-620 of 3043
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An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Seasonal Precipitation and Thermodynamic Environment in Puerto Rico
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractWith limited groundwater reserves and few reservoirs, Caribbean islands such as Puerto Rico are largely dependent on regular rainfall to meet societal and ecological water needs. Thus, the ability to anticipate ... -
Using Weather Pattern Recognition to Classify and Predict Summertime Heavy Rainfall Occurrence over the Upper Nan River Basin, Northwestern Thailand
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractIn this study, self-organizing maps in combination with K-means clustering are used to objectively classify the anomalous weather patterns (WPs) associated with the summertime [May?June (MJ) and July?August?September ... -
Measure of Forecast Challenge and Predictability Horizon Diagram Index for Ensemble Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractResponding to the call for new verification methods in a recent editorial in Weather and Forecasting, this study proposed two new verification metrics to quantify the forecast challenges that a user faces in ... -
Winter Storm Tracks and Related Weather in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Weeks 3–4 Reforecasts for North America
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThis article examines to what extent the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) weeks 3?4 reforecasts reproduce the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) storm-track properties, and if so, whether the storm-track behavior can contribute ... -
An Analysis on Perturbation Features of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction Based on the Local Breeding Growth Mode
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractIn this study, a convection-allowing ensemble prediction experiment was conducted on a strong convective weather process, based on the local breeding growth mode (LBGM) method proposed according to the strongly ... -
Systematic Error Analysis and Calibration of 2-m Temperature for the NCEP GEFS Reforecast of the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Project
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe National Centers for Environmental Prediction have generated an 18-yr (1999?2016) subseasonal (weeks 3 and 4) reforecast to support the Climate Prediction Center?s operational mission. To create this reforecast, ... -
Estimates of Gradients in Radar Moments Using a Linear Least Squares Derivative Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe local, linear, least squares derivative (LLSD) approach to radar analysis is a method of quantifying gradients in radar data by fitting a least squares plane to a neighborhood of range bins and finding its ... -
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting over East Asia Using Bayesian Model Averaging
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractBayesian model averaging (BMA) was applied to improve the prediction skill of 1?15-day, 24-h accumulated precipitation over East Asia based on the ensemble prediction system (EPS) outputs of ECMWF, NCEP, and UKMO ... -
Verification of Two Years of CNR-ISAC Subseasonal Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe monthly forecasting system of the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the National Research Council (CNR-ISAC) of Italy is operationally run on a weekly basis in the framework of the Subseasonal- ... -
On the Value of Time-Lag-Ensemble Averaging to Improve Numerical Model Predictions of Aircraft Icing Conditions
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model with its hourly updating cycles provides multiple weather forecasts valid at any given time. A logical combination of these individual deterministic forecasts is ... -
Spread and Skill in Mixed- and Single-Physics Convection-Allowing Ensembles
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractSpread and skill of mixed- and single-physics convection-allowing ensemble forecasts that share the same set of perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions are investigated at a variety of spatial scales. ... -
Combined Kalman Filter and Universal Kriging to Improve Storm Wind Speed Predictions for the Northeastern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe scope of this study is to assess a combination of well-known techniques for bias reduction and spatial interpolation in an attempt to improve wind speed prediction for storms on a gridded domain. This is ... -
A Novel Method for Modeling Lowest-Level Vertical Motion
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractA new method for modeling the lowest model level vertical motion is described and validated. Instead of smoothing terrain heights, the new method calculates the terrain gradient on a high-resolution grid and averages ... -
Validation of Satellite Observations of Storm Damage to Cropland with Digital Photographs
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)ABSTRACTSevere storm events that include hail and wind often cause widespread contiguous swaths of damage; however, their occurrence is typically documented at individual and disjointed locations. Satellite-derived products, ... -
Aircraft Icing Study Using Integrated Observations and Model Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractLight (LGT) to moderate (MOD) aircraft icing (AI) is frequently reported at Cold Lake, Alberta, but forecasting AI has been a big challenge. The purpose of this study is to investigate and understand the weather ... -
Strength Outlooks for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Three strategies for creating probabilistic forecast outlooks for El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are compared. One is subjective and is currently used by the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to produce official ... -
Seasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy and Major Hurricane Activity
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Building upon our previous seasonal hurricane prediction model, here we develop two statistical models to predict the number of major hurricanes (MHs) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic basin using ... -
Evolution of WRF-HAILCAST during the 2014–16 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Four different versions of the HAILCAST hail model have been tested as part of the 2014?16 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiments. HAILCAST was run as part of the National Severe Storms Laboratory ... -
Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving ... -
A Comparison of Two Methods for Bias Correcting Precipitation Skill Scores
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)A fair comparison of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) products from multiple forecast sources using performance metrics based on a 2 ? 2 contingency table with assessment of statistical significance of differences ...