Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 581-600 of 3043
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Development and Evaluation of In-Flight Icing Index Forecast for Aviation
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractAn in-flight icing index from the literature is implemented in the Met Office forecasting system. Comparison of hindcasts of cloud fraction with ground-based remote sensing observations of liquid and ice cloud ... -
Processes Associated with Convection Initiation in the North American Mesoscale Forecast System, Version 3 (NAMv3)
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractIn support of the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) project, processes leading to convection initiation in the North American Mesoscale Forecast System, version 3 (NAMv3) are explored. Two severe ... -
A Feed Forward Neural Network Based on Model Output Statistics for Short-Term Hurricane Intensity Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractA feed forward neural network (FFNN) is developed for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction, where intensity is defined as the maximum 1-min average 10-m wind speed. This deep learning model incorporates a ... -
A Deficit of Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill over West Coast Regions in NMME
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThis study investigates the forecast skill of seasonal-mean near-surface (2 m) air temperature in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) Phase 2, with a focus on the West Coast of the United States. Overall, ... -
Antarctic Verification of the Australian Numerical Weather Prediction Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Global (ACCESS-G) features an atmosphere-only numerical weather prediction (NWP) suite used operationally by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to ... -
Antecedent North Pacific Jet Regimes Conducive to the Development of Continental U.S. Extreme Temperature Events during the Cool Season
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThis study considers the development of continental U.S. extreme temperature events (ETEs) during the cool season (September?May), where extreme temperatures are defined in terms of percentiles and events are defined ... -
Verification of Road Surface Temperature Forecasts Assimilating Data from Mobile Sensors
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)ABSTRACTThe advances in communication technologies have made it possible to gather road condition information from moving vehicles in real time. However, data quality must be assessed and its effects on the road weather ... -
Global Precipitation Forecasts by Merging Extrapolation-Based Nowcast and Numerical Weather Prediction with Locally Optimized Weights
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractOver the past few decades, precipitation forecasts by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been remarkably improved. Yet, precipitation nowcasting based on spatiotemporal extrapolation tends to provide a ... -
Examination of the Predictability of Nocturnal Tornado Events in the Southeastern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractTornadoes that occur at night pose particularly dangerous societal risks, and these risks are amplified across the southeastern United States. The purpose of this study is to highlight some of the characteristics ... -
Santa Ana Winds: A Descriptive Climatology
(American Meteorological Society, 2018)AbstractThe criteria used to define Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are dependent upon both the impact of interest (e.g., catastrophic wildfires) and the location and/or time of day examined. We employ a comprehensive definition ... -
Verification of Postprocessed Summer Temperature Forecasts at U.K. Sites Using Observed Climate-Based Thresholds
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe full range of ensemble forecast members, expressed in percentile format, can give additional valuable information to users compared to a deterministic solution. This study contains the first rigorous assessment ... -
Evaluation of Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecast Products Using WRF, NMMB, and FV3 for the 2016–17 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiments
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractDuring the summers of 2016 and 2017, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) ran real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts (SSEFs) in support of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) Flash Flood and ... -
Long-Duration Freezing Rain Events over North America: Regional Climatology and Thermodynamic Evolution
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractFreezing rain can cause severe impacts, particularly when it persists for many hours. In this paper, we present the climatology of long-duration (6 or more hours) freezing rain events in the United States and Canada ... -
The Spread of Tropical Storm Tracks in Three Versions of NCEP’s Global Ensemble Model: Focus on Hurricane Edouard (2014)
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractSince 2012, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) has undergone two major upgrades. Version 11 was introduced in December 2015, with a new dynamic scheme, improved ... -
Numerical Simulation of Rapid Weakening of Hurricane Joaquin with Assimilation of High-Definition Sounding System Dropsondes during the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment: Comparison of Three- and Four-Dimensional Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractObservations from High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) dropsondes, collected for Hurricane Joaquin during the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field experiment in 2015, are assimilated ... -
Numerical Simulations of Typhoon Hagupit (2008) Using WRF
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractWe used a mesoscale atmospheric model to simulate Typhoon Hagupit (2008) in the South China Sea (SCS). First, we chose optimized parameterization schemes based on a series of sensitivity tests. The results suggested ... -
Forest-Based and Semiparametric Methods for the Postprocessing of Rainfall Ensemble Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractTo satisfy a wide range of end users, rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We introduce local statistical postprocessing methods based on quantile regression ... -
TKE-Based Moist Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) Parameterization for Vertical Turbulent Mixing
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractA new turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based moist eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) vertical turbulence mixing scheme (EDMF-TKE) is developed, where the nonlocal transport by large turbulent eddies is represented ... -
Using Radar-Derived Parameters to Develop Probabilistic Guidance for Lightning Cessation within Isolated Convection near Cape Canaveral, Florida
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThunderstorms in central Florida frequently halt outdoor activities, requiring that one wait some prescribed time after an assumed last flash before safely resuming activities. The goal of this research is to develop ... -
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity by Satellite Imagery Utilizing Convolutional Neural Networks
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractAccurately estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is one of the most critical steps in TC forecasting and disaster warning/management. For over 40 years, the Dvorak technique (and several improved versions) has ...