Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 561-580 of 3043
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Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-Ensemble Outputs
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)This paper describes the development of a model framework for Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-Ensemble Outputs (FHLO). FHLO quantifies the forecast uncertainty of a tropical cyclone (TC) by generating probabilistic ... -
A Synoptic Climatology of Spring Dryline Convection in the Southern Great Plains
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)A dataset of drylines within a region of the southern Great Plains was constructed to investigate the large-scale environments associated with the initiation of deep moist convection. Drylines were identified using NOAA/NWS ... -
Skill of Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts for East Africa
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)Skillful seasonal forecasts can provide useful information for decision-makers, particularly in regions heavily dependent on agriculture, such as East Africa. We analyze prediction skill for seasonal East African rainfall ... -
Next-Day Prediction of Tornadoes Using Convection-Allowing Models with 1-km Horizontal Grid Spacing
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractExplicit attributes of convective storms within convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts are routinely used as surrogates for convective weather hazards. The ability of 3- and 1-km horizontal grid spacing CAM ... -
A Regime-Based Evaluation of Southern and Northern Great Plains Warm-Season Precipitation Events in WRF
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractA competitive neural network known as the self-organizing map (SOM) is used to objectively identify synoptic patterns in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for warm-season (April?September) precipitation ... -
Rapid-Update Radar Observations of ZDR Column Depth and Its Use in the Warning Decision Process
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe recent dual-polarization upgrade to the National Weather Service radar network provides forecasters with new information to use during operations, yet currently this information is not routinely used to explicitly ... -
On the Link between Summer Dry Bias over the U.S. Great Plains and Seasonal Temperature Prediction Skill in a Dynamical Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractSoil moisture anomalies are expected to be a driver of summer predictability for the U.S. Great Plains since this region is prone to intense and year-to-year varying water and energy exchange between the land and ... -
CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractAn error was discovered in the code used to calculate neighborhood equitable threat scores (nETSs) in Squitieri and Gallus. Replicating results with the error corrected revealed that most of the conclusions from ... -
Tropical Cyclone–Related Precipitation over the Northwest Tropical Pacific in Met Office Global Operational Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe tropical west Pacific Ocean and the Philippines are often affected by tropical cyclones (TCs), with threats to human life and of severe economic damage. The performance of the Met Office global operational ... -
The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Update and New Capabilities
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) is used operationally by tropical cyclone forecast centers worldwide to help estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) from operational geostationary meteorological ... -
An NWP Model Intercomparison of Surface Weather Parameters in the European Arctic during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period Northern Hemisphere 1
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractIncreased human activity in the Arctic calls for accurate and reliable weather predictions. This study presents an intercomparison of operational and/or high-resolution models in an attempt to establish a baseline ... -
Characteristics of Tornado Events and Warnings in the Southeastern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe southeastern United States has become a prime area of focus in tornado-related literature due, in part, to the abundance of tornadoes occurring in high-shear low-CAPE (HSLC) environments. Through this analysis ... -
Investigating the Transition from Elevated Multicellular Convection to Surface-Based Supercells during the Tornado Outbreak of 24 August 2016 Using a WRF Model Simulation
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractOn 24 August 2016, a tornado outbreak impacted Indiana, Ohio, and Ontario with 26 confirmed tornadoes. Elevated multicellular convection developed into surface-based supercells that produced several tornadoes, ... -
Atmospheric Composite Sounding Analysis as a Forecasting Tool for Ozone Accumulation in a Semiarid Metropolitan Area during the North America Monsoon: Phoenix, Arizona
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractPhoenix, Arizona, observes a high summertime frequency for daily maximum 8-h ozone averages (DMO8) exceeding 70 parts per billion, resulting in nonattainment status by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This ... -
Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis from Mesoscale Convective Systems Using Machine Learning
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) genesis is a problem of great significance in climate and weather research. Although various environmental conditions necessary for TC genesis have been recognized for a long time, prediction ... -
The Impacts of Using Mixed Physics in the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractA well-known problem in high-resolution ensembles has been a lack of sufficient spread among members. Modelers often have used mixed physics to increase spread, but this can introduce problems including computational ... -
Improvement of Mountain-Wave Turbulence Forecasts in NOAA’s Rapid Refresh (RAP) Model with the Hybrid Vertical Coordinate System
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractSpurious mountain-wave features have been reported as false alarms of light-or-stronger numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based cruise level turbulence forecasts especially over the western mountainous region of ... -
Evaluation of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Using Near-Surface Meteorological and Flux Observations from Northern Alabama
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model became operational at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2014 but the HRRR?s performance over certain regions of the coterminous United States ... -
Deep Learning for Spatially Explicit Prediction of Synoptic-Scale Fronts
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThis paper describes the use of convolutional neural nets (CNN), a type of deep learning, to identify fronts in gridded data, followed by a novel postprocessing method that converts probability grids to objects. ... -
Evaluation of Cumulus and Microphysics Parameterizations in WRF across the Convective Gray Zone
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThis study evaluates the grid-length dependency of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model precipitation performance for two cases in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. The aim is to investigate ...