Prediction of the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Event in a Multiphysics Multi-Initial-Conditions Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System

Abstract

rolonged heavy rainfall produced widespread flooding in the Oklahoma City area early on 14 June 2010. This event was poorly predicted by operational models; however, it was skillfully predicted by the Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast produced by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms as part of the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment. In this study, the quantitative precipitation forecast skill of ensemble members is assessed and ranked using a neighborhood-based threat score calculated against the stage IV precipitation data, and Oklahoma Mesonet observations are used to evaluate the forecast skill for surface conditions. Statistical correlations between skill metrics and qualitative comparisons of relevant features for higher- and lower-ranked members are used to identify important processes. The results demonstrate that the development of a cold pool from previous convection and the movement and orientation of the associated outflow boundary played dominant roles in the event. Without assimilated radar data from this earlier convection, the modeled cold pool was too weak and too slow to develop. Furthermore, forecast skill was sensitive to the choice of microphysics parameterization; members that used the Thompson scheme produced initial cold pools that propagated too slowly, substantially increasing errors in the timing and placement of later precipitation. The results also suggest important roles played by finescale, transient features in the period of outflow boundary stalling and reorientation associated with the heaviest rainfall. The unlikelihood of a deterministic forecast reliably predicting these features highlights the benefit of using convection-allowing/convection-resolving ensemble forecast methods for events of this kind.