Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2721-2740 of 3043
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Barron County, Wisconsin, Multiple Tornadoes and Hailstorms of 11 September 1990
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Four tornadoes, of F1?F2 intensity, occurred over Barron County, Wisconsin, on the evening of 11 September 1990. The tornadoes were associated with a slow-moving thunderstorm cluster that developed along a warm front, and ... -
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: ... -
Observations of a Florida Waterspout during CaPE
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A case of a waterspout that developed from a relatively small cumulus cloud is presented. This is believed to be the first time that detailed Doppler radar information on a parent cloud has ever been collected. Vertical ... -
A Short-Term Cloud Forecast Scheme Using Cross Correlations
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)This paper describes a cloud forecast technique using lag cross correlations. Cloud motion vectors are retrieved at a subset of points through multiple applications of a cross-correlation analysis. An area in the first of ... -
Operational Ensemble Prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical Aspects
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)On 7 December 1992 NMC began operational ensemble prediction. The ensemble configuration provides 14 independent forecasts every day, verifying on days 1 through 10. The ensemble members are generated through a combination ... -
Sea Ice-Edge Enhancement Using Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellite Data
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The authors develop and discuss satellite image enhancements of sea ice boundaries to the north and west of Alaska. Using data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the authors illustrate how a ... -
The Impact of Manually Derived Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure Data upon Forecasts from a Global Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Experiments have been conducted within the framework of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's global data assimilation and prediction system to assess the forecast impact of Southern Hemisphere sea level pressure estimates ... -
STORMTIPE: A Forecasting Experiment Using a Three-Dimensional Cloud Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)An experiment using a three-dimensional cloud-scale numerical model in an operational forecasting environment was carried out in the spring of 1991. It involved meteorologists generating forecast environmental conditions ... -
Improving Extended-Range Seasonal Predictions of Intense Atlantic Hurricane Activity
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)This study shows that hindcasts of seasonal numbers of intense Atlantic hurricanes made using a nonlinear statistical model are superior to those made by linear statistical models previously described in the literature. A ... -
Upper-Level Geostrophic Diffluence and Deepening of Surface Lows
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)No abstract available -
Performance of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office Global Model in Predicting the Movement of Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A detailed evaluation of the performance of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office Global Model (UKMO) in predicting the movement of 15 tropical cyclones (TCs) that occurred over the western North Pacific during 1987 is ... -
Forecast of Typhoon Motion in the Vicinity of Taiwan during 1989–90 Using a Dynamical Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A limited-area numerical model designed specifically for forecasting typhoon tracks has been operational at the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Taiwan, since January 1990. It is a primitive equation model with nine ... -
The Use of Equivalent Potential Vorticity to Diagnose Regions of Conditional Symmetric Instability
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Conditional symmetric instability (CSI) is an important property of the atmosphere when diagnosing and predicting mesoscale bands of moderate to heavy precipitation within winter cyclones. Within regions of CSI, slantwise ... -
Meteorological Conditions Associated with Bow Echo Development in Convective Storms
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Most observational and numerical modeling investigations into the meteorological factors affecting bow echo development in the United States have concerned long-lived events occurring during the late spring and summer. As ... -
What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Differences of opinion exist among forecasters?and between forecasters and users?regarding the meaning of the phrase ?good (bad) weather forecasts.? These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or ... -
The Development and Verification of TIPS: An Expert System to Forecast Thunderstorm Occurrence
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A rule-based expert system has been developed to assist military weather forecasters in the prediction of thunderstorms. The knowledge base used by the Thunderstorm Intelligence Prediction System (TIPS) was built by using ... -
The Prediction of Rapidly Deepening Cyclones by NMC's Nested Grid Model: Winter 1989–Autumn 1991
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A study of rapidly deepening cyclones (RDC) produced by the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Nested Grid Model (NGM) was conducted over a three-year period from the winter of 1988/89 through the autumn of 1991. The ... -
The Dependence of Short-Range Surface Cyclone Forecasts on the Large-Scale Circulation: A Preliminary Assessment
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Sea level cyclone errors for two contrasting planetary-scale flow regimes, a long-wave trough verses a long-wave ridge over western North America, are computed for the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model ... -
The Evaluation of Idaho Wildfire Growth Using the Haines Index
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)An atmospheric index specifically designed to be related to the growth of wildland fires is evaluated for two recent Idaho fires. The index includes terms related to high midlevel lapse rates and low-level dry air. In the ... -
A Methodology for Predicting the Puget Sound Convergence Zone and Its Associated Weather
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSCZ) is a terrain-induced mesoscale phenomenon that occurs in western Washington and has a dramatic impact on local weather. This paper presents the operational forecasting techniques ...