Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2701-2720 of 3043
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The Performance of Four Global Models over the Australian Region
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)National weather services now receive global model forecasts from a number of centers around the world. The existence of these forecasts raises the general question of how the operational forecaster can best use the ... -
An Estimate of Systematic Error and Uncertainty in Surface Cyclone Analysis over the North Pacific Ocean: Some Forecasting Implications
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)The systematic error and uncertainty of surface analyses produced by the National Meteorological Center (NMC) over the North Pacific Ocean is estimated. Differences in cyclone position, central pressure, and 12-h deepening ... -
A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)A statistical model for predicting intensity changes of Atlantic tropical cyclones at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h is described. The model was developed using a standard multiple regression technique with climatological, ... -
Synoptic and Mesoscale Structure of a Severe Freezing Rain Event: The St. Valentine's Day Ice Storm
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)A severe freezing rainstorm produced as much as 4.5 cm of freezing rain during an 18-h period at Champaign, Illinois, on 14?15 February 1990, resulting in over $12 million in damage, week-long power outages, and a federal ... -
Potential Applications of the SSM/I Cloud Liquid Water Parameter to the Estimation of Marine Aircraft Icing
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)Images of integrated cloud liquid water derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program polar-orbiting satellite are presented. Examples with infrared and visible ... -
Numerical Prediction of the 10–11 June 1985 Squall Line with the Canadian Regional Finite-Element Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)In an effort to improve operational forecasts of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a mesoscale version of the operational Canadian Regional Finite-Element (RFE) Model with a grid size of 25 km is used to predict an ... -
Lower-Tropospheric Precursors to Nocturnal MCS Development over the Central United States
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)Composite analyses are examined to identify signals in the late afternoon surface and lower-tropospheric environments that indicate the expected location and degree of nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) development ... -
Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 June
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)This is the third in a series of papers describing the potential for the seasonal forecasting of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Earlier papers by the authors describe seasonal prediction from 1 December of the ... -
Diagnosing an Operational Numerical Model Using Q-Vector and Potential Vorticity Concepts
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)A quasigeostrophic (QG) diagnostic model is used to evaluate the nested grid model's (NGM) predictions for a December cyclone whose impact on northeastern Colorado was underpredicted. Although the NGM predicted deepening ... -
Analog (Nonlinear) Forecasts of the Southern Oscillation Index Time Series
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)A nonlinear time series forecasting scheme developed by Sugihara and May has been applied to the Southern Oscillation index. Although forecast skill is comparable only to persistence or linear (autoregressive) methods, the ... -
The Use of a Two-Dimensional, Time-Dependent Cloud Model to Predict Convective and Stratiform Clouds and Precipitation
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)A two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model has been used in two field projects to forecast the convective development during the day from the morning sounding. In effect, the cloud model gives a dynamic analysis of the ... -
Some Mesoscale Aspects of the 6 June 1990 Limon, Colorado, Tornado Case
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)During the late afternoon and early evening of 6 June 1990, a series of severe thunderstorms produced nine tornadoes and numerous incidents of large hail on the High Plains of eastern Colorado. While the morning synoptic ... -
Coastal Frontogenesis and Precipitation during ERICA IOP 2
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)The inverted trough and coastal front that occurred during ERICA IOP 2 were studied in order to assess the ability of an operational mesoscale model, the Canadian Regional Finite Element Model, to provide credible forecast ... -
An Analysis of the Accuracy of 120-h Predictions by the National Meteorological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1994)An assessment was made of the 120-h predictions by the medium range forecast (MRF) run of the National Meteorological Center's (NMC's) global spectral model. The ability of the model to forecast surface cyclones and ... -
Comments on “Snow versus Rain: Looking Beyond the ‘Magic’ Numbers”
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)No abstract available -
Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) has developed a Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport And Dispersion (VAFTAD) model for emergency response use focusing on hazards to ... -
Tropical Cyclone Observation and Forecasting with and without Aircraft Reconnaissance
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The contributions of aircraft reconnaissance to the accuracy of tropical cyclone center positioning, motion, and intensity determinations are examined, along with their impact on the accuracy of track and intensity ... -
Some Considerations in Using Color in Meteorological Displays
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)This article is intended to facilitate discussion of issues related to the use of color in new meteorological displays. Given the proliferation of new graphics display capabilities (e.g., overlays, animation, the combination ... -
Snowstorms over the Puget Sound Lowlands
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Snowfall over the Puget Sound lowlands is the product of complex interactions between the synoptic-scale flow and the mesoscale topography of the region. Although heavy snowfall is relatively infrequent in this region, ... -
Snow-Band Formation and Evolution during the 15 November 1987 Aircraft Accident at Denver Airport
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The formation and evolution of convective rain and snow bands prior to and during the crash of Continental Airlines flight 1713 on 15 November 1987 at Denver Stapleton Airport are discussed. Convective rain occurred during ...