Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2741-2760 of 3043
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Stratus Surge Prediction along the Central California Coast
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A simple decision-tree forecast scheme to predict the south-north development or movement of stratus along the central California coast is developed and tested. Known as ?stratus surges,? these mesoscale events are ... -
The Onshore Push of Marine Air into the Pacific Northwest
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Areas west of the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest have a mild climate generally influenced by air flowing inland from the cool northwest Pacific Ocean. Warm, dry episodes in the warm season end with a return to ... -
The Lake Effect of the Great Salt Lake: Overview and Forecast Problems
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A lake-effect snow phenomenon along the shore of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah is documented and related to a similar, well-documented lake effect along the shores of the Great Lakes. Twenty-eight cases of GSL lake-effect ... -
A Method for Predicting Chinook Winds East of the Montana Rockies
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Damaging foehn winds, locally known as ?chinook? winds, are loosely defined and generally described for the east slopes of the Montana Rockies. Three upper-level patterns associated with chinook episodes in Montana are ... -
Forecast Problems in the Western Region of the National Weather Service: An Overview
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The western United States is a preferred location for persistent midtropospheric long-wavelength ridges at the planetary scale. This greatly affects the character of synoptic-scale disturbances that move through the region, ... -
Editorial
(American Meteorological Society, 1993) -
On the Skill and Utility of NMC's Medium-Range Central Guidance
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Verification scores are presented to illustrate the general success of NMC forecasters in providing the best day 3,4, and 5 mean sea level pressure and 6?10-day mean 500-mb height fields given the operationally available ... -
The Utility of Sounding and Mesonet Data to Nowcast Thunderstorm Initiation
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Previous studies have shown that thunderstorms often form along boundary-layer convergence lines (boundaries) detected by sensitive Doppler radars similar to the WSR-88D. In this paper, high-resolution mesonet observations ... -
Nowcasts of Thunderstorm Initiation and Evolution
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)This paper reports on experimental space-specific 30-min nowcasts of thunderstorm initiation, evolution, and movement. The experiments were conducted near Denver, Colorado, with the purpose of providing weather information ... -
Characteristics of Surface Cyclone Forecasts in the Aviation Run of the Global Spectral Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The performance of the Aviation Run (AVN) of the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) in predicting surface cyclones was examined during the autumn of 1990 through the winter of 1992, a period ... -
Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 August
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)More than 90% of all seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity typically occurs after 1 August. A strong predictive potential exists that allows seasonal forecasts of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be issued ... -
Two Years of Operational Comprehensive Hydrostatic Quality Control at the National Meteorological Center
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)A comprehensive hydrostatic quality control (CHQC) procedure for rawinsonde heights and temperatures was implemented into operational use at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) in December 1988. The CHQC uses a ... -
An Evaluation of Sea Level Cyclone Forecasts Produced by NMC's Nested-Grid Model and Global Spectral Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)Sea level cyclone errors are computed for the National Meteorological Center's Nested-Grid Model (NGM) and the Aviation Run of the Global Spectral Model (AVN). The study is performed for the 1987/88 and 1989/90 cool seasons. ... -
The Weather Information and Skill Experiment (WISE): The Effect of Varying Levels of Information on Forecast Skill
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The relationship between the quality and quantity of information available to meteorologists and the skill of their forecasts was investigated. Twelve meteorologists were asked to make probabilistic forecasts of significant ... -
An Evaluation of the Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 1993)The meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones is evaluated and it is shown that the model can provide useful ... -
Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score
(American Meteorological Society, 1992)The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) ... -
Climatology, Persistence, and Their Linear Combination as Standards of Reference in Skill Scores
(American Meteorological Society, 1992)Skill scores measure the accuracy of the forecasts Of interest relative to the accuracy Of forecasts based on naive forecasting methods, with either climatology or persistence usually playing the role of the naive method. ... -
Snow versus Rain: Looking beyond the “Magic” Numbers
(American Meteorological Society, 1992)Compelling evidence suggests that various lower-tropospheric thickness calculations (e.g., 1000?850- and 850?700-mb thickness) should be considered a vital element of wintertime precipitation-type forecasts. The traditional ... -
Satellite-based Microwave Observations of Tropopause-Level Thermal Anomalies: Qualitative Applications in Extratropical Cyclone Events
(American Meteorological Society, 1992)The evolution of upper-tropospheric thermal patterns associated with extratropical cyclone events is often not well represented by the conventional observational network, especially in marine situations. In this paper, a ... -
The April 1990 Floods over Eastern Australia: Synoptic Description and Assessment of Regional NWP Guidance
(American Meteorological Society, 1992)Between 17 and 22 April 1990 widespread flooding occurred throughout Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria, with several record rainfalls recorded. This paper investigates the forcing of the rainfall, assesses the ...