Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2421-2440 of 3043
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Spatially Averaged versus Point Precipitation in Monongahela Basin:Statistical Distinctions for Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The predictand of a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) may be either a point precipitation amount or a spatially averaged precipitation (SAP) amount. At the current state of the art, it is the SAP ... -
Detection of Nonprecipitating Clouds with the WSR-88D: A Theoretical and Experimental Survey of Capabilities and Limitations
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Theoretical calculations and experiments verify that the National Weather Service WSR-88D radars have the sensitivity to detect nonprecipitating clouds, but show that significant obstacles impair the generality of this ... -
An Evaluation of WSR-88D Severe Hail Algorithms along the Northeastern Gulf Coast
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Software build 9.0 for the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) contains several new or improved algorithms for detecting severe thunderstorms. The WSR-88D Operational Support Facility supports testing and ... -
Improving WSR-88D Hourly Rainfall Estimates
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)A statistical objective analysis (SOA) scheme is used to reanalyze the stage III estimate of rainfall, an hourly mosaic of digital precipitation arrays produced by a network of WSR-88Ds. The technique also uses rainfall ... -
Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts in the North Atlantic Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Statistical analyses of the most recent 40 yr of hurricane tracks (1956?95) are presented, leading to a version of the North Atlantic climatology and persistence (CLIPER) model that exhibits much smaller forecast biases ... -
Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Activity over theWestern North Pacific and the South China Sea
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)This paper presents the development of operational statistical forecasts of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) based on 30 yr of data (1965?94). ... -
Extended-Range Probability Forecasts Based on Dynamical Model Output
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)A probability forecast has advantages over a deterministic forecast as the former offers information about the probabilities of various possible future states of the atmosphere. As physics-based numerical models find their ... -
Statistical Characteristics of a Real-Time Precipitation Forecasting Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)At Colorado State University the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) has been used to produce real-time forecasts of precipitation for the Colorado mountain region since 1991. Originally a so-called dump-bucket ... -
The LAMP QPF Products. Part I: Model Development
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The Local AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) MOS (model output statistics) Program (LAMP) quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) system produces 1?22-h forecasts of precipitation over the conterminous ... -
Numerical Models of Boundary Layer Processes over and around the Gulf of Mexico during a Return-Flow Event
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The return-flow of low-level air from the Gulf of Mexico over the southeast United States during the cool season is studied using numerical models. The key models are a newly developed airmass transformation (AMT) model ... -
Mesoscale Model Simulation of the 4–5 January 1995 Lake-Effect Snowstorm
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The Pennsylvania State University?NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5), running on a triply nested grid, was used to simulate the intense lake-effect snowstorm of 4?5 January 1995. On the finest grid (5-km resolution) ... -
Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The ... -
Comments on “A Climatology of Significant Winter-Type Weather Events in the Contiguous United States, 1982–94”
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)No Abstract Available -
Cyclone Intensity Categories
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The weather forecast centers in Australia and many other countries use a scale of cyclone intensity categories (categories 1?5) in their cyclone advisories, which are considered to be indicative of the cyclone damage ... -
Assessing the Vertical Distribution of Convective Available Potential Energy
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Comparisons of convective available potential energy (CAPE) with standard instability indices for evaluating the convective potential of the atmosphere such as the lifted index (LI) reveal only moderate correlations. This ... -
Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Southeast United States during 1994–95: A Survey
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)A preliminary survey of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the southeastern United States is presented. MCSs are identified and characterized by means of high-resolution, digital, composite radar reflectivity data. ... -
The Occurrence of Tornadoes in Supercells Interacting with Boundaries during VORTEX-95
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)During the Verifications of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment, nearly 70% of the significant tornadoes occurred near low-level boundaries not associated with the forward or rear flank downdrafts of supercells. ... -
An Example of Uncertainty in Sea Level Pressure Reduction
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Difficulty analyzing mesoscale features in California and Nevada for a 1991 case study prompted a review of techniques for sea level pressure (SLP) reduction and an evaluation of the performance of the various techniques ... -
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Australian East Coast Cyclogenesis
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Explosive cyclogenesis occurs on average once a year over the coast of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Known locally as east coast lows, these storms are characterized by very strong winds and heavy rain. Intensity, size, ... -
Observations of Widespread Lake-Effect Cloudiness: Influences of Lake Surface Temperature and Upwind Conditions
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Large spatial and temporal variations were observed in the location of the upwind cloud edge over Lake Michigan during five westerly wind lake-effect events in November 1995 through January 1996. This study examines the ...