Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2441-2460 of 3043
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A Case Study of the Use of Statistical Models in Forecast Verification: Precipitation Probability Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The traditional approach to forecast verification consists of computing one, or at most very few, quantities from a set of forecasts and verifying observations. However, this approach necessarily discards a large portion ... -
The Regime Dependence of Degree Day Forecast Technique, Skill, and Value
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)An investigation into the manner in which forecasters adjust their reliance on particular pieces of forecast information as the large-scale flow pattern evolves into different regimes, and the relationship between those ... -
Marine Forecasting at the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)A team of meteorologists from the United States, Canada, and Australia provided marine weather support to the sailing events of the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games, held in Wassaw Sound near Savannah, Georgia. The team ... -
Scalar Measures of Performance in Rare-Event Situations
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)A set of 14 scalar, nonprobabilistic measures?some old, some new?is examined in the rare-event situation. The set includes measures of accuracy, association, discrimination, bias, and skill. It is found that all measures ... -
Predicting Summertime Caribbean Pressure in Early April
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)A method to predict the June?September (JJAS) Caribbean sea level pressure anomalies (SLPAs) using data available the previous April is described. The method involves the creation of a multiple linear regression equation ... -
The Diurnal Distribution of Lightning over North Florida and Its Relation to the Prevailing Low-Level Flow
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Six years (1989?94) of cloud-to-ground lightning data are used to examine the distribution of lightning across the Florida panhandle and adjacent coastal waters and its relationship to the prevailing low-level flow. Only ... -
A Preliminary Investigation and Diagnosis of Weak Shear Summertime Convective Initiation for Extreme Southwest Alabama
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The initiation and location of summer season convective activity, occurring between 1500 and 1800 UTC within a 100-km radius of the Mobile, Alabama, National Weather Service WSR-88D radar site, was examined on days when ... -
The Sundowner Winds of Santa Barbara, California
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Significant downslope wind and warming events periodically occur along a short segment of the southern California coast in the vicinity of Santa Barbara. This region is characterized by a unique mesoscale topography:over ... -
A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating the Effects of Snow Cover on Cold Airmass Temperatures across the U.S. Great Plains
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Over the past two decades a greater emphasis has been placed on the accuracy of the representation of snow cover?atmosphere interactions in weather and climate prediction models. Much of the attention centered upon snow ... -
Generation of Three-Dimensional Lake Model Forecasts for Lake Erie
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)A one-way coupled atmospheric?lake modeling system was developed to generate short-term, mesoscale lake circulation, water level, and temperature forecasts for Lake Erie. The coupled system consisted of the semi-operational ... -
Persistent Low Overcast Events in the U.S. Upper Midwest: A Climatological and Case Study Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Persistent low overcast conditions, defined as continuous overcast conditions (100% cloud cover) with ceiling heights at or below 2 km for a minimum of 5 days, are found to occur in the cold season in the U.S. upper Midwest ... -
The Effects of Climatological and Persistence Variables on the Intensities of Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The effects of 10 climatological and persistence variables (latitude, maximum wind speed, 12-h change of maximum wind speed, longitude, distance to land, Julian date, sea surface temperature, speed of movement, zonal ... -
Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–95
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Hurricanes are the costliest natural disasters in the United States. Understanding how both hurricane frequencies and intensities vary from year to year as well as how this is manifested in changes in damages that occur ... -
Stepping Stones in the Evolution of a National Hurricane Policy
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Like most government policies directly affecting the welfare of the nation, the evolution of a coherent national policy on hurricane warnings, public preparedness, and subsequent disaster relief has been event motivated?a ... -
Effects of a Mountain Wave Windstorm at the Surface
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)A mountain wave windstorm in 1993 is documented for the Taku River Valley near Juneau, Alaska. The mountain wave produces a mesoscale pressure response that appears to enhance local gap flow and complicates efforts to ... -
Use of Real-Time Multisatellite and Radar Data to Support Forest Fire Management
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Combined digital data from multiple satellites and Doppler radar can provide fire weather meteorologists and resource managers with accurate information on forest fire location, intensity, growth, smoke plumes, and associated ... -
A Bow Echo and Severe Weather Associated with a Kona Low in Hawaii
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)On 2 November 1995 a kona low formed to the northwest of Hawaii. During the following 48 h a series of convective rainbands developed on the southeastern side of the low as it slowly moved eastward. On the afternoon of 3 ... -
Application of the NCEP Regional Spectral Model to Improve Mesoscale Weather Forecasts in Hawaii
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The operational implementation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) in Hawaii is the first application of a mesoscale model to improve weather forecasts in the Pacific ... -
Analysis of Surface Winds in Shelikof Strait, Alaska, UsingMoored Buoy Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The winds within Shelikof Strait, Alaska, have been examined using hourly observations from a pair of meteorological buoys moored at the ends of the strait for a 6-month period in 1994. The focus is on periods of gap winds, ... -
Weather and Forecasting Challenges in the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The large area of responsibility covered by the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service provides a unique set of challenges to operational forecasters. Extratropical, subtropical, and tropical meteorological phenomena ...