Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2401-2420 of 3043
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Evaluation of MM5 and Eta-10 Precipitation Forecasts over the Pacific Northwest during the Cool Season
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Precipitation forecasts from the Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and NCEP?s 10-km resolution Eta Model (Eta-10) are verified over the Pacific Northwest in order ... -
Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie Storm Surge Water Levels
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)This article has two purposes. The first is to describe how the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed and forecast water levels. The second ... -
An Objective Method to Modify Numerical Model Forecasts with Newly Given Weather Data Using an Artificial Neural Network
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)An objective method of forecasting precipitation coverage with a neural network is presented. This method uses as predictors all available data at local weather stations including both numerical model results and weather ... -
Short-Term Forecast Validation of Six Models
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The short-term forecast accuracy of six different forecast models over the western United States is described for January, February, and March 1996. Four of the models are operational products from the National Centers for ... -
The Impact of Aircraft Data on an Atlantic Cyclone Analyzed in Terms of Sensitivities and Trajectories
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)A case study of an eastern Atlantic cyclogenesis event is conducted. The focus is on the impact of aircraft data on both the analysis and forecast of the event. The case takes place between 1 and 3 February 1994 and involves ... -
Modeling Coastally Trapped Wind Surges over Southeastern Australia. Part I: Timing and Speed of Propagation
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)During the spring and summer months, the southeast coast of Australia often experiences abrupt southerly wind changes, the leading edge being known locally as a ?southerly buster.? The main characteristic of this phenomenon ... -
An Objective Approach for Making Heavy Rainfall Forecasts Based on Numerical Model Output and the Latest Observation
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)An approach is presented that can make an objective heavy rainfall forecast based on numerical model output and the latest observed rainfall without employing historical data. The idea of the approach is that the mean ... -
An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation ... -
Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model. Part II: Subjective Verification over Florida
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)This paper describes a subjective evaluation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 29-km (Meso) Eta Model during the 1996 warm (May?August) and cool (October?January) seasons. The companion paper by Nutter ... -
Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model. Part I: Objective Verification at Three Selected Stations
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)This paper describes an objective verification of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 29-km Eta Model from May 1996 through January 1998. The evaluation was designed to assess the model?s surface and upper-air ... -
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Comments on “Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Australian East Coast Cyclogenesis”
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)No abstract available. -
Localized Precipitation Forecasts from a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Networks
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Although the resolution of numerical weather prediction models continues to improve, many of the processes that influence precipitation are still not captured adequately by the scales of present operational models, and ... -
The Steadman Wind Chill: An Improvement over Present Scales
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Because of shortcomings in the current wind chill formulation, which did not consider the metabolic heat generation of the human body, a new formula is proposed for operational implementation. This formula, referred to as ... -
Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal ... -
A Baseline Climatology of Sounding-Derived Supercell andTornado Forecast Parameters
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)All of the 0000 UTC soundings from the United States made during the year 1992 that have nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE) are examined. Soundings are classified as being associated with nonsupercell ... -
Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on theMRF Ensemble
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) ensemble currently perform below their full potential quality (i.e., accuracy ... -
The Initiation of Moist Convection at the Dryline: Forecasting Issues from aCase Study Perspective
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The processes that force the initiation of deep convection along the dryline are inferred from special mesoscale observations obtained during the 1991 Central Oklahoma Profiler Studies project, the Verification of the ... -
The Utilization of Statistical Properties of Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors to Derive Quality Indicators
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The extraction of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from cloud and moisture features from successive geostationary satellite images is an established and important data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP). So far ... -
Objective Prediction of Severe Thunderstorm Environments: Preliminary Results Linking a Decision Tree with an Operational Regional NWP Model
(American Meteorological Society, 1998)The output from the Australian operational regional numerical weather prediction model has been used to provide input thermodynamic and kinematic fields to a decision tree designed to diagnose the likelihood of thunderstorms ...