Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2381-2400 of 3043
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The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part II: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Nonconvective Strong Wind Gusts
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)This paper presents results from pilot studies of the use of model-generated hourly soundings to forecast nonconvectively produced strong wind gusts. Model soundings from the operational Eta and Meso Eta Models were used ... -
Echo Height Measurements with the WSR-88D: Use of Data from One Versus Two Radars
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The new Doppler radars of the National Weather Service (i.e., the WSR-88D radars) are operated continuously in a volume scanning mode (called Volume Coverage Pattern, VCP) with the elevation tilt angles fixed for several ... -
Comparative Verification of Guidance and Local Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Calibration Analyses
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)A comparative verification is reported of 2631 matched pairs of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) prepared daily from 1 October 1992 to 31 October 1996 by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and the ... -
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and ... -
Eta Simulations of Three Extreme Precipitation Events: Sensitivity to Resolution and Convective Parameterization
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)A versatile workstation version of the NCEP Eta Model is used to simulate three excessive precipitation episodes in the central United States. These events all resulted in damaging flash flooding and include 16?17 June ... -
The Madison County, Virginia, Flash Flood of 27 June 1995
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Between 25 and 27 June 1995, excessive rainfall and associated flash flooding across portions of western Virginia resulted in three fatalities and millions of dollars in damage. Although many convective storms occurred ... -
Evidence of Mesoscale Lows off the West Coast of New Zealand
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Mesoscale lows are observed off the central west coast, South Island, New Zealand. These features are evidenced in pressure dips measured at a buoy moored about 50 km off the west coast. They do not appear in measurements ... -
Mesoscale Band Formation in Three Major Northeastern United States Snowstorms
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s 29-km version Meso Eta Model and Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler base reflectivity data were used to diagnose intense mesoscale snowbands in three northeastern ... -
Precipitation Forecasting Using a Neural Network
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)A neural network, using input from the Eta Model and upper air soundings, has been developed for the probability of precipitation (PoP) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for the Dallas?Fort Worth, Texas, area. ... -
An Updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Updates to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin are described. SHIPS combines climatological, persistence, and synoptic predictors to forecast intensity changes using a ... -
Numerical Prediction of the Summertime Ridge–Trough System over Northeastern Australia
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The synoptic pattern over northeastern Australia is dominated in the warmer months by a ridge?trough system. Accurate prediction of the location of the system is a significant forecasting problem for regional and global ... -
Performance of the Navy’s Tropical Cyclone Prediction Model in the Western North Pacific Basin during 1996
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The U.S. Navy?s operational implementation of the hurricane prediction system developed at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration?s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is described, and the performance ... -
Radar Reflectivity–Derived Thunderstorm Parameters Applied to Storm Longevity Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)In order for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to use airspace more efficiently during thunderstorm events, accurate storm longevity forecasts are needed. Relationships between 16 radar reflectivity?derived storm ... -
A Flash Flood from a Lake-Enhanced Rainband
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)An analysis of a flash flood caused by a lake-enhanced rainband is presented. The flood took place near Erie, Pennsylvania, on 17 September 1996. It was found that the flood resulted from a complex interplay of several ... -
Downstream Amplification: A Possible Precursor to Major Freeze Events over Southeastern Brazil
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Many frost events over southeastern Brazil are accompanied by a large-amplitude upper trough of the middle latitudes that extends well into the Tropics. This paper first illustrates that a mechanism of downstream amplification ... -
Meteorological Reanalyses for the Study of Gulf War Illnesses: Khamisiyah Case Study
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The Marine Meteorology Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), assisted by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, has performed global and mesoscale reanalyses to support the study of Gulf War ... -
Statistical Single-Station Short-Term Forecasting of Temperature and Probability of Precipitation: Area Interpolation and NWP Combination
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Two statistical single-station short-term forecast schemes are introduced and applied to real-time weather prediction. A multiple regression model (R model) predicting the temperature anomaly and a multiple regression ... -
An Optimal Model Output Calibration Algorithm Suitable for Objective Temperature Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)An optimal model output calibration (MOC) algorithm suitable for surface air temperature forecasts is proposed and tested with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Regional Spectral Model (RSM). Differing from ... -
Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The forecast skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in predicting precipitation probabilities is discussed. Four seasons are analyzed in detail using signal detection ... -
Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality ...