Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2361-2380 of 3043
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Performance Evaluation Statistics Applied to Derived Fields of NWP Model Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)NWP model skill as obtained from the standard statistics applied to derived atmospheric fields such as thermal advection and moisture convergence is different from that obtained by the same statistics applied to basic model ... -
Conditional Probabilities, Relative Operating Characteristics, and Relative Operating Levels
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a highly flexible method for representing the quality of dichotomous, categorical, continuous, and probabilistic forecasts. The method is based on ratios that measure ... -
A Study of Heavy Rainfall Events during the Great Midwest Flood of 1993
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)A synoptic?dynamic climatology was constructed using all 24-h 2-in. (50.8 mm) or greater rainfall events in nine states affected by heavy rains and flooding from June through September 1993 using 6- or 12-h gridded analyses ... -
Heavy Cold-Season Precipitation in the Northwestern United States: Synoptic Climatology and an Analysis of the Flood of 17–18 January 1986
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Warm, moist southwesterly airflow into the northwestern United States during the cold season can result in rapid snowmelt and flooding. The objectives of this research are to document characteristic synoptic flow patterns ... -
Comparisons of HRD and SLOSH Surface Wind Fields in Hurricanes: Implications for Storm Surge Modeling
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Surface wind observations analyzed by the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) were compared to those computed by the parametric wind model used in the National Weather Service Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes ... -
Importance of Cold Pools to NCEP Mesoscale Eta Model Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The cold pool, a pool of evaporatively cooled downdraft air that spreads out horizontally along the ground beneath a precipitating cloud, is often a factor in severe weather and heavy precipitation events. Unfortunately, ... -
Thunderstorm Characteristics of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida: A Study of Lightning Initiation Signatures as Indicated by the WSR-88D
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The operational potential for predicting the onset of cloud-to-ground lightning is examined. WSR-88D reflectivity echoes were analyzed for 39 airmass thunderstorms that developed over the NASA Kennedy Space Center, Florida, ... -
Descending and Nondescending Tornadic Vortex Signatures Detected by WSR-88Ds
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Tornadic vortex signatures (TVSs) of 52 tornadoes were identified and analyzed, then characterized as either descending or nondescending. This characterization refers to a known tendency of radar-observed tornadic vortices, ... -
Sensitivity of WSR-88D Rainfall Estimates to the Rain-Rate Threshold and Rain Gauge Adjustment: A Flash Flood Case Study
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)A strong thunderstorm produced a flash flood on the evening of 12 July 1996 in Buffalo Creek, Colorado, that caused two deaths and significant property damage. Most of the rain fell in a 1-h time period from 2000 to 2100 ... -
Wake Low Severe Wind Events in the Mississippi River Valley: A Case Study of Two Contrasting Events
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Severe winds, in excess of 50 kt (25 m s?1), brought widespread damage across the mid?Mississippi Valley on the mornings of 11 April 1995 and 28 April 1996. These severe winds were unusual and unexpected as they trailed ... -
A History of Severe-Storm-Intercept Field Programs
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Efforts to study severe convective storms and tornadoes by intercepting them either on the ground or on airborne platforms are highlighted. Airborne sorties into or near waterspouts in the Florida Keys with instruments ... -
Storm Spotting and Public Awareness since the First Tornado Forecasts of 1948
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The history of storm spotting and public awareness of the tornado threat is reviewed. It is shown that a downward trend in fatalities apparently began after the famous ?Tri-State? tornado of 1925. Storm spotting?s history ... -
Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit during the Last 25 Years: Then versus Now
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)The purpose of this paper is to review the large strides made in tornado and severe thunderstorm forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS) of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center during the last 25 years or ... -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service?s Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center?s immediate history dates to ... -
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The Tinker AFB Tornadoes of March 1948
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)During March of 1948 Tinker Air Force Base was hit directly by two tornadoes during a period of only five days. The first tornado was the most destructive, to that point, ever to occur in Oklahoma. The second storm caused ... -
Historical Roots of Modern Tornado Forecasts and Warnings
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Although accounts of tornadoes occurred in ancient writings, few paid much attention to nature?s most violent windstorm until the United States Army Signal Corps?s John Park Finley began writing about tornadoes in the ... -
The First Operational Tornado Forecast Twenty Million to One
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)Editor?s note: The following, edited by Charlie Crisp, is taken from an unpublished manuscript (The Unfriendly Sky) by the late Colonel Robert C. Miller. A Plea for Understanding The close knit world of the tornado and ... -
Editorial
(American Meteorological Society, 1999) -
Comments on “Evaluation and Application of Conditional Symmetric Instability, Equivalent Potential Vorticity, and Frontogenetic Forcing in an Operational Forecast Environment”
(American Meteorological Society, 1999)No abstract available.