Historical Roots of Modern Tornado Forecasts and Warnings

Abstract

Although accounts of tornadoes occurred in ancient writings, few paid much attention to nature?s most violent windstorm until the United States Army Signal Corps?s John Park Finley began writing about tornadoes in the 1880s. Finley used statistics he had gathered from a network of tornado observers and a study of previous tornadoes that had occurred throughout the country to compile a list of rules for tornado prediction. The Signal Corps in 1884 allowed Finley to issue trial tornado forecasts, but the fear of public panic led the chief signal officer to ban the use of the word ?tornado.? Finley and his supporters believed the statistics verified the effectiveness of tornado forecasting, but the corps, beset by internal conflicts, ended the experiment in 1886. The Agriculture Department, which assumed jurisdiction for the civilian-controlled Weather Bureau in 1890, continued the ban on the use of the word tornado in forecasts until 1938. In spite of the loss of thousands of lives to tornadoes during this period, the Weather Bureau not only failed to encourage research on the subject but also failed to institute any type of forecasting or warning system. Residents in tornado-prone areas learned to rely on signs in nature and their own senses to warn of approaching severe weather. A systematic approach to tornado forecasting and warnings was as nonexistent in 1940 as it had been in 1870.