Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2001-2020 of 3043
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Interpreting the Climatology of Derechos
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Past studies have examined the climatology of derechos and suggest very different distributions of derechos within the United States. This uncertainty in the climatology of derechos is a concern for forecasters, since ... -
Recent Improvements to the GOES Microburst Products
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The downburst is defined as a strong downdraft produced by a deep convective storm that induces strong or damaging winds on or near the earth's surface. Because of the intense wind shear they produce, downbursts are a ... -
Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning ... -
Analysis of the Spread–Skill Relations Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System over Europe
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to analyze various aspects of the ensemble-spread forecast-skill relation. It was shown that synoptic-scale ... -
Intercomparison of Global Research and Operational Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Current limitations of atmospheric predictive skill are investigated through comparison of correlation and error statistics of operational and research global models for two winter seasons. In 1993, bias-corrected models ... -
Location-Specific Prediction of the Probability of Occurrence and Quantity of Precipitation over the Western Himalayas
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Northwest India is composed, in part, of complex Himalayan mountain ranges having different altitudes and orientations, causing the prevailing weather conditions to be complex. During winter, a large amount of precipitation ... -
A Simple Model for Coastal Sea Level Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Reliable forecasting of wind-forced coastal sea level on the synoptic scale is available for most of the coastal areas of the United States through the National Weather Service Extratropical Storm Surge Model (ESSM). ... -
Fire Detection Using GOES Rapid Scan Imagery
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)This paper demonstrates the proper use of geostationary satellite imagery in wildland fire detection. The roles of both the visible and the 3.9-?m channels are emphasized. Case studies from June 2002 are presented to ... -
A Combined Physical–Statistical Approach for the Downscaling of Model Wind Speed
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)In this paper a combined physical?statistical approach for the downscaling of model wind speed is assessed. The key factor in this approach is the decomposition of the total error (model ? observation) into a small-scale ... -
CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2004) -
U.S. Tropical Cyclone Landfall Variability: 1950–2002
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Interannual variations in U.S. tropical storm and hurricane landfalls are examined over the interval 1950? 2002. The 10 highest and 9 lowest U.S. storm and hurricane landfall years are highlighted. U.S. landfalls are 6 ... -
Precipitation Forecasting at High Latitudes
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Despite Antarctica being considered the driest continent on Earth, precipitation plays an important role in modulating activities, where reduced visibility in snow not only adversely affects flying operations but can also ... -
A Poisson Regression Model of Tropical Cyclogenesis for the Australian–Southwest Pacific Ocean Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)This paper seeks to address some of the limitations in previous statistical forecast models of tropical cyclogenesis through the development of a series of Poisson regression models on a 2° latitude ? 5° longitude spatial ... -
MCS Rainfall Forecast Accuracy as a Function of Large-Scale Forcing
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The large-scale forcing associated with 20 mesoscale convective system (MCS) events has been evaluated to determine how the magnitude of that forcing influences the rainfall forecasts made with a 10-km grid spacing version ... -
Midlevel Dry Intrusions as a Factor in Tornado Outbreaks Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Midlevel dry intrusions have been mentioned as a factor in tornado outbreaks associated with landfalling tropical cyclones for more than three decades, but a systematic analysis of historical outbreak cases with respect ... -
Sea Waves Generated by Extratropical Cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean: Hindcast and Validation against Altimeter Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)This work presents analyses of the atmospheric conditions and the hindcast of the surface wave field when six extratropical cyclones formed and displaced over the South Atlantic Ocean (10°N, 60°S; 75°W, 15°E) between April ... -
The Boy Who Cried Wolf Revisited: The Impact of False Alarm Intolerance on Cost–Loss Scenarios
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Meteorologists often interpret the value of a probabilistic weather forecast using the binary cost?loss scenario. The socioeconomic benefit of such a forecast will depend on the compliance rate of users and, hence, the ... -
An Analysis of Freezing Rain, Freezing Drizzle, and Ice Pellets across the United States and Canada: 1976–90
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)A comprehensive analysis of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and ice pellets was conducted using data from surface observations across the United States and Canada. This study complements other studies of freezing precipitation ... -
The Rapid Growth and Decay of an Extratropical Cyclone over the Central Pacific Ocean
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The life cycle of a central Pacific cyclone, characterized by a 48-h interval of rapid fluctuation in its intensity, is examined. The cyclone of interest underwent a period of explosive cyclogenesis from 1200 UTC 4 November ... -
Major Numerical Forecast Failures over the Northeast Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Strong North Pacific storms that impact the North American west coast are sometimes poorly predicted in the short term (up to 48 h) by operational models, with cyclone position errors of hundreds of kilometers and central ...