Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region

Abstract

Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning system, the Sardinian Regional Meteorological Service (SAR) and the Centre for Advanced Studies, Research and Development in Sardinia (CRS4) have been testing a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (SAR-LEPS). The SAR-LEPS system is described and preliminary results of its use to predict the intense and localized flooding event of 12?13 November 1999 are discussed. Results for this specific case study indicate that SAR-LEPS provided valuable, additional information to the ECMWF ensemble system. This suggests that the operational use of SAR-LEPS could prove to be an important component in the decision making process in issuing threat warnings for severe weather conditions.