Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1981-2000 of 3043
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Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Significant Cold-Season Precipitation Events in Burlington, Vermont
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Several classes of significant cold-season precipitation events occurring in Burlington, Vermont (KBTV), during the 33-yr period from 1963 to 1995, are studied with the objective of identifying large-scale circulation ... -
Resuspension of Relic Volcanic Ash and Dust from Katmai: Still an Aviation Hazard
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Northwest winds were strong enough to continuously resuspend relic volcanic ash from the Katmai volcano cluster and the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes on 20?21 September 2003. The ash cloud reached over 1600 m and extended ... -
Mesoscale Snowfall Prediction and Verification in Mountainous Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Short-term forecasting of precipitation often relies on meteorological radar coverage to provide information on the intensity, extent, and motion of approaching mesoscale features. However, in significant portions of ... -
Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)February?March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that ... -
Role of the Monsoon Gyre in the Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The south-southeast periphery of a monsoon gyre in the western North Pacific (WNP) is a favorable region for tropical cyclone/tropical depression (TC/TD) genesis. The TC genesis frequency is interannually modulated by the ... -
Discussion of Verification Concepts in Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science
(American Meteorological Society, 2004) -
An Automated Synoptic Typing Procedure to Predict Freezing Rain: An Application to Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Freezing rain is a major weather hazard that can compromise human safety, significantly disrupt transportation, and damage and disrupt built infrastructure such as telecommunication towers and electrical transmission and ... -
MM5 Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts in the Taiwan Area for Three Early Summer Convective (Mei-Yu) Seasons
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)This study presents precipitation verification of individual members and ensemble means in the Taiwan area for a real-time mesoscale ensemble prediction system, during the 2000, 2001, and 2002 early summer convective ... -
Radar Observations of the Early Evolution of Bow Echoes
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The evolution of 273 bow echoes that occurred over the United States from 1996 to 2002 was examined, especially with regard to the radar reflectivity characteristics during the prebowing stage. It was found that bow echoes ... -
Estimations of CIN and LFC Associated with Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)It is generally understood that tornadoes are less likely in environments where surface-based instability is absent and the only convective available potential energy (CAPE) is from elevated parcels originating well above ... -
Nowcasting Thunderstorm Anvil Clouds over Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Electrified thunderstorm anvil clouds extend the threat of natural and triggered lightning to space launch and landing operations far beyond the immediate vicinity of thunderstorm cells. The deep convective updrafts of ... -
An Objective Technique for Verifying Sea Breezes in High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)An ongoing challenge in mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is to determine the ideal method for verifying the performance of high-resolution, detailed forecasts. Traditional objective techniques that evaluate NWP ... -
Potential Benefits of Using Probabilistic Forecasts for Waves and Marine Winds Based on the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The potential benefits of using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for waves and marine surface winds are demonstrated using buoy and platform data as well as altimeter data. For forecasting purposes, the spread ... -
A Numerical Modeling Study of the Weather in East Antarctica and the Surrounding Southern Ocean
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The requirement for more detailed and accurate weather forecasts in Antarctica has steadily grown over the past decade, to the point where more sophisticated high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems need ... -
The Sensitivity of the Number of Correctly Forecasted Events to the Threat Score:A Practical Application
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The sensitivity (S) of the number of correctly forecast events (?hits?) to changes in threat score is explored. An emphasis is placed on the practical utility of S for end users of operational systems who may need to further ... -
A Derecho in Europe: Berlin, 10 July 2002
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The European windstorm that affected parts of Germany on 10 July 2002 is classified as a derecho. With respect to the synoptic situation, it was identified as a dynamic or strongly forced derecho. Examining different ... -
A History of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting skill of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and their consensus is examined for the western North Pacific from 1992 to 2002. The TC track forecasting skill of ... -
A Small Updraft Producing a Fatal Lightning Flash
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Just prior to 1900 UTC 25 July 2000, an 18-year-old male was fatally wounded by a lightning flash on the summit of Pikes Peak, Colorado. This case is believed to be unique in that radar and satellite data indicated that ... -
Aspects of a Tornadic Left-Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)A severe left-moving thunderstorm occurred on 25 May 1999 between the cities of Lubbock and Amarillo, Texas. Over its 3.5-h lifetime, the storm was responsible for flash flooding, reports of hail of up to 7 cm in diameter, ... -
Changing Uses of Climate Predictions in Agriculture: Implications for Prediction Research, Providers, and Users
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)A series of seven studies of the usage of climate predictions by U.S. agribusinesses were conducted during 1981?2001, and their results have been reviewed to identify information to guide future predictive research, providers ...