Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1961-1980 of 3043
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Potential Vorticity (PV) Thinking in Operations: The Utility of Nonconservation
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The use of the potential vorticity (PV) framework by operational forecasters is advocated through case examples that demonstrate its utility for interpreting and evaluating numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output ... -
Comparative Analysis of the Local Observation-Based (LOB) Method and the Nonparametric Regression-Based Method for Gridded Bias Correction in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The comparative analysis of three methods for objective grid-based bias removal in mesoscale numerical weather prediction models is considered. The first technique is the local observation-based (LOB) method that extends ... -
Composite Predictor Maps of Extraordinary Weather Events in the Sacramento, California, Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Extraordinary weather events in the Sacramento, California, region are examined using a simple compositing technique. The extraordinary events identified are uncommon and the worst of their kind, but not necessarily severe. ... -
Flash Flood Forecasting for Small Urban Watersheds in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The utility of distributed hydrologic models in combination with high-resolution Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) rainfall estimates for flash flood forecasting in urban drainage basins is examined through ... -
Tornado Warnings, Lead Times, and Tornado Casualties: An Empirical Investigation
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Conventional wisdom holds that improved tornado warnings will reduce tornado casualties, because longer lead times on warnings provide extra opportunities to alert residents who can then take precautions. The relationship ... -
On the Differences in Storm Rainfall from Hurricanes Isidore and Lili. Part II: Water Budget
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Part I of this two-part paper examined the satellite-derived rainfall accumulation and rain potential history of Hurricanes Isidore and Lili (2002). This paper (Part II) uses analyses from the Navy Operational Global ... -
Objective Forecasting of Foehn Winds for a Subgrid-Scale Alpine Valley
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Foehn winds often depend on topographical features of a scale that is not sufficiently resolved in numerical models. Consequently, a successful foehn forecast has crucially depended on the experience of bench forecasters. ... -
A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)WIND-3 is an application for aviation weather forecasting that uses the analog method to produce deterministic predictions of cloud ceiling height and horizontal visibility at airports. For data, it uses historical and ... -
Modeling of Two Northwest Atlantic Storms with Third-Generation Wave Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)In this study, three state-of-the-art operational forecast wave models are implemented on nested grids in order to achieve fine-resolution wave simulations (0.1°) in the Gulf of Maine and related northwest Atlantic waters. ... -
On the Differences in Storm Rainfall from Hurricanes Isidore and Lili. Part I: Satellite Observations and Rain Potential
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)It has been well known for years that the heavy rain and flooding of tropical cyclones over land bear a weak relationship to the maximum wind intensity. The rainfall accumulation history and rainfall potential history of ... -
EDITORIAL BY AMS PRESIDENT AVERY ON UNPAID PAGE CHARGES
(American Meteorological Society, 2004) -
The Second–Generation Global Forecast System at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)The global forecast system (GFS), which started its operation in 1988 at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, has been upgraded to incorporate better numerical methods and more complete parameterization schemes. The ... -
EDITORIAL BY AMS PRESIDENT AVERY ON UNPAID PAGE CHARGES
(American Meteorological Society, 2004) -
Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Arizona Winter Precipitation during Years of Neutral ENSO
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Recent studies indicate that correlations between ENSO and winter precipitation in the southwestern United States may vary with the phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In-phase relationships between ENSO and ... -
Toward Improved Prediction: High-Resolution and Ensemble Modeling Systems in Operations
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)A large gap in skill between forecasts of the atmospheric circulation (relatively high skill) and quantitative precipitation (low skill) has emerged over the past three decades. One common approach toward closing this gap ... -
Updated 6–11-Month Prediction of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)An updated statistical scheme for forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin by 1 December of the previous year is presented. Previous research by Gray and colleagues at Colorado State University ... -
Extratropical Cyclones with Multiple Warm-Front-Like Baroclinic Zones and Their Relationship to Severe Convective Storms
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Extratropical cyclones over the central United States and southern Canada from the years 1982 and 1989 were examined for the presence of two or more (multiple) warm-front-like baroclinic zones, hereafter called MWFL ... -
Early Warnings of Severe Weather from Ensemble Forecast Information
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)A system has been developed to give probabilistic warnings of severe-weather events for the United Kingdom (UK) on a regional and national basis, based on forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ... -
Association between NSSL Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm-Detected Vortices and Tornadoes
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Nearly 100 000 vortex detections produced by the Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm (MDA) are analyzed to gain insight into the effectiveness of the detection algorithm in identifying various types of tornado-producing events. ... -
A Nudging Scheme for the Assimilation of Precipitation Data into a Mesoscale Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)A nudging procedure for the assimilation of rainfall data into a mesoscale model [the Bologna Limited Area Model (BOLAM)] has been developed in order to improve short-range forecasting. The scheme modifies the model specific ...