Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1941-1960 of 3043
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Two Extra Components in the Brier Score Decomposition
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The Brier score is widely used for the verification of probability forecasts. It also forms the basis of other frequently used probability scores such as the rank probability score. By conditioning (stratifying) on the ... -
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts with an Artificial Neural Network
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A feed-forward neural network is configured to calibrate the bias of a high-resolution probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) produced by a 12-km version of the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) ensemble ... -
Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Research investigating the importance of the subsurface ocean structure on tropical cyclone intensity change has been ongoing for several decades. While the emergence of altimetry-derived sea height observations from ... -
Sensitivity of WRF Forecasts for South Florida to Initial Conditions
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)This study presents results from an experiment conducted to measure the impact of locally initializing a numerical weather prediction model on that model?s ability to predict precipitation and other surface parameters. The ... -
Hydrometeorological Accuracy Enhancement via Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Forecasts in Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Statistical postprocessing techniques such as model output statistics are used by national weather centers to improve the skill of numerical forecasts. However, many of these techniques require an extensive database to ... -
Using Precipitation Observations in a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)A simple method to assimilate precipitation data from a synthesis of radar and gauge data is developed to operate alongside an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates hourly surface observations. The mesoscale ensemble ... -
The North Dakota Tornadic Supercells of 18 July 2004: Issues Concerning High LCL Heights and Evapotranspiration
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)On the evening of 18 July 2004, several tornadoes occurred with two supercell thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota. The second and smaller in diameter of these storms produced an F4 tornado in an environment with lifting ... -
Performance of Hourly Operational Consensus Forecasts (OCFs) in the Australian Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)This paper presents an extension of the operational consensus forecast (OCF) method, which performs a statistical correction of model output at sites followed by weighted average consensus on a daily basis. Numerical weather ... -
Applying Satellite-Estimated Storm Rotation Speed to Improve Typhoon Rainfall Potential Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Heavy rainfall from typhoons or tropical cyclones often causes inland flooding and mudslides that threaten lives and property. In this study, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) satellite data observed from 2000 to ... -
A Practical Approach to Sequential Estimation of Systematic Error on Near-Surface Mesoscale Grids
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Statistical analysis arguments are used to construct an estimation algorithm for systematic error of near-surface temperatures on a mesoscale grid. The systematic error is defined as the observed running-mean error, and ... -
Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)This paper evaluates the use of precipitable water (PW) from the global positioning system (GPS) in lightning prediction. Additional independent verification of an earlier model is performed. This earlier model used binary ... -
A Comparison of Two Tropical Cyclone Bogussing Schemes
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The impact of two bogussing schemes on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts is compared. One scheme for bogussing TCs into the initial conditions of the nonhydrostatic version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State ... -
A Statistical Study of the Association of DRCs with Supercells and Tornadoes
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A new three-dimensional reflectivity echo in the rear flank of supercells known as the descending reflectivity core (DRC) has been documented in the literature by Rasmussen et al. The DRC is an enhanced region of reflectivity ... -
Impact of Satellite Winds on Marine Wind Simulations
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)A variational data assimilation method is applied to remotely sensed wind data from Hurricanes Gustav (2002) and Isabel (2003) to produce enhanced marine wind estimates. The variational method utilizes constraints to ensure ... -
Sensitivity of Surface Analyses over the Western United States to RAWS Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Federal, state, and other wildland resource management agencies contribute to the collection of weather observations from over 1000 Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) in the western United States. The impact of RAWS ... -
Strengths and Weaknesses of MOS, Running-Mean Bias Removal, and Kalman Filter Techniques for Improving Model Forecasts over the Western United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction, model errors, particularly near the surface, are unavoidable due to imperfect model physics, initial conditions, and boundary conditions. Here, three techniques for ... -
A Snow-Ratio Equation and Its Application to Numerical Snowfall Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)This study 1) presents a logistic regression equation of the snow ratio (SR) for use in a conversion of numerically predicted precipitation amounts into snowfall depths and 2) examines the quality of snowfall-depth forecasts ... -
A Statistical Comparison of the Properties of Flash Flooding and Nonflooding Precipitation Events in Portions of New York and Pennsylvania
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Flash floods reported for the forecast area of the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Binghamton, New York (BGM), are compared with similar significant precipitation and flash flood watch events not corresponding ... -
The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Starting from 2003, a new typhoon surveillance program, Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR), was launched. During 2004, 10 missions for eight typhoons were conducted ... -
Precipitation Regimes during Cold-Season Central U.S. Inverted Trough Cases. Part II: A Comparative Case Study
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)This is the second of two papers that examine the organization of the precipitation field during central U.S. cold-season cyclones involving inverted troughs (ITs). The first paper (Part I) used a climatology and composites ...