Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1921-1940 of 3043
-
Multisensor Comparison and Numerical Modeling of Atmospheric Water Fields: A VOLTAIRE Case Study over Cyprus
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)This paper presents a study performed within the framework of the European Union?s (EU) VOLTAIRE project (Fifth Framework Programme). Among other tasks, the project aimed at the integration of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring ... -
Computing the Low-Elevation Variant of the Haines Index for Fire Weather Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The Haines index is used in wildfire forecasting and monitoring to evaluate the potential contributions of atmospheric stability and humidity to the behavior of plume-dominated wildfires. The index has three variants (?low,? ... -
The Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds in Perth, Australia: Examples and Limitations
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The preparation of accurate operational weather forecasts and the timely issuance of severe marine weather and ocean warnings and advisories for major oceanic weather systems impacting both coastal areas and the open ocean ... -
A Verification of Numerical Model Forecasts for Sounding-Derived Indices above Udine, Northeast Italy
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)In this work, 40 different indices derived from real soundings and the corresponding ECMWF model forecasts for the same location (near Udine, northeast Italy) are compared. This comparison is repeated for more than 500 ... -
Experiments with a Simple Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Consensus forecasts (forecasts created by combining output from individual forecasts) have become an integral part of operational tropical cyclone track forecasting. Consensus aids, which generally have lower average errors ... -
Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution ... -
Investigating the Utility of Using Cross-Oceanic Training Sets for Superensemble Forecasting of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)This paper examines how combining training-set forecasts from two separate oceanic basins affects the resulting tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in a particular oceanic basin. Atlantic and eastern Pacific ... -
Modeling the Distribution of Precipitation Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Kernel Density Estimation
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Kernel density estimation is employed to fit smooth probabilistic models to precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system. An intuitive nonparametric technique, kernel density estimation has become a ... -
The Impact of Aircraft Dropsonde and Satellite Wind Data on Numerical Simulations of Two Landfalling Tropical Storms during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Dropwindsonde, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-11 (GOES-11) rapid-scan atmospheric motion vectors, and NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) near-surface wind data collected during NASA?s Tropical Cloud ... -
A Two-Season Impact Study of Four Satellite Data Types and Rawinsonde Data in the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Extended-length observing system experiments (OSEs) during two seasons are used to quantify the contributions made to forecast quality by conventional rawinsonde data and four types of remotely sensed satellite data. The ... -
Use of Normalized Anomaly Fields to Anticipate Extreme Rainfall in the Mountains of Northern California
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Extreme rainfall events contribute a large portion of wintertime precipitation to northern California. The motivations of this paper were to study the observed differences in the patterns between extreme and more commonly ... -
The Impact of Variational Assimilation of SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Observations on the Numerical Simulation of Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) is utilized to investigate the ... -
Comments on “A Preliminary Study of Severe Wind-Producing MCSs in Environments of Limited Moisture”
(American Meteorological Society, 2007) -
Experiences with 0–36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Herein, a summary of the authors? experiences with 36-h real-time explicit (4 km) convective forecasts with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) during the 2003?05 spring and summer seasons ... -
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Tornado Fatalities in the United States: 1880–2005
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A dataset of killer tornadoes is compiled and analyzed spatially in order to assess region-specific vulnerabilities in the United States from 1880 to 2005. Results reveal that most tornado fatalities occur in the lower?Arkansas, ... -
Bias-Corrected Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Near-Surface Variables during the 2005/06 Cool Season
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A postprocessing method initially developed to improve near-surface forecasts from a summertime multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The method, known as the ... -
Spring and Summer Severe Weather Reports over the Midwest as a Function of Convective Mode: A Preliminary Study
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Radar data during the period 1 April?31 August 2002 were used to classify all convective storms occurring in a 10-state region of the central United States into nine predominant morphologies, and the severe weather reports ... -
Removal of Systematic Model Bias on a Model Grid
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Virtually all numerical forecast models possess systematic biases. Although attempts to reduce such biases at individual stations using simple statistical corrections have met with some success, there is an acute need for ... -
An In-Person Survey Investigating Public Perceptions of and Responses to Hurricane Rita Forecasts along the Texas Coast
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Hurricane Rita made landfall near the Texas?Louisiana border in September 2005, causing major damage and disruption. As Rita approached the Gulf Coast, uncertainties in the storm?s track and intensity forecasts, combined ... -
Forecast and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters (ForTraCC) Using Satellite Infrared Imagery: Methodology and Validation
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The purpose of this study is to develop and validate an algorithm for tracking and forecasting radiative and morphological characteristics of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) through their entire life cycles using ...