Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1901-1920 of 3043
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A Study in Weather Model Output Postprocessing: Using the Boosting Method for Thunderstorm Detection
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)In this work, a new approach to weather model output postprocessing is presented. The adaptive boosting algorithm is used to train a set of simple base classifiers with historical data from weather model output, surface ... -
On the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Two-Dimensional Simulations
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a dominant climatological feature of the central United States and are responsible for a substantial fraction of warm season rainfall. Yet very little is known about the predictability ... -
The Temporal Evolution of Convective Indices in Storm-Producing Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Temporal changes in stability and shear associated with the development of thunderstorms are quantified using the enhanced temporal resolution of combined Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic ... -
The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast ... -
From Model-Based Parameterizations to Lookup Tables: An EOF Approach
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The goal of this study is to transform the Harrington radiation parameterization into a transfer scheme or lookup table, which provides essentially the same output (heating rate profile and short- and longwave fluxes at ... -
Verification of an MSG Image Forecast Model: METCAST
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)A validation of a very short-range forecast model is presented: the Meteosat Cloud Advection System (METCAST). The model forecasts IR (10.8 ?m) images based on Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data and uses ouput from the ... -
The Optimal Bulk Wind Differential Depth and the Utility of the Upper-Tropospheric Storm-Relative Flow for Forecasting Supercells
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)An analysis of 4 yr of Rapid Update Cycle-2 (RUC-2) derived soundings in proximity to radar-observed supercells and nonsupercells is conducted in an effort to answer two questions: 1) over what depth is the fixed-layer ... -
Atmospheric Moisture and Cloud Cover Characteristics Forecast by AMPS
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) forecasts of atmospheric moisture and cloud fraction (CF) are compared with observations at McMurdo and Amundsen?Scott South Pole station (hereafter, South Pole station) in ... -
Short-Term Ice Accretion Forecasts for Electric Utilities Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and a Modified Precipitation-Type Algorithm
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to provide 6?12-h forecasts of the necessary input parameters to a separate algorithm that determines the most likely precipitation type at each model grid point. ... -
Assessing the Capability of a Regional-Scale Weather Model to Simulate Extreme Precipitation Patterns and Flooding in Central Texas
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)A regional-scale weather model is used to determine the potential for flood forecasting based on model-predicted rainfall. Extreme precipitation and flooding events are a significant concern in central Texas, due to both ... -
Visibility during Blowing Snow Events over Arctic Sea Ice
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)A field study on visibility during Arctic blowing snow events over sea ice in Franklin Bay, Northwest Territories, Canada, was carried out from mid-January to early April 2004 during the Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study ... -
A Diagnostic Verification of the Precipitation Forecasts Produced by the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)A comparatively long period of relative stability in the evolution of the Canadian Ensemble Forecast System was exploited to compile a large homogeneous set of precipitation forecasts. The probability of exceedance of a ... -
Sampling Uncertainty and Confidence Intervals for the Brier Score and Brier Skill Score
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)For probability forecasts, the Brier score and Brier skill score are commonly used verification measures of forecast accuracy and skill. Using sampling theory, analytical expressions are derived to estimate their sampling ... -
Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part II: Economic Evaluation
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Two economic models are employed to perform a value assessment of short-range ensemble forecasts of 24-h precipitation probabilities for hydroelectric reservoir operation. Using a static cost?loss model, the value of the ... -
A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local ... -
Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly than average tropical ... -
Improving Short-Term Storm Predictions by Assimilating both Radar Radial-Wind and Reflectivity Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)A high-resolution data assimilation system is under development at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). The objective of this development is to assimilate high-resolution data, especially those from Doppler radars, into ... -
Developments in Operational Long-Range Climate Prediction at CPC
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The science, production methods, and format of long-range forecasts (LRFs) at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a part of the National Weather Service?s (NWS?s) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), have ... -
Lower-Tropospheric Enhancement of Gravity Wave Drag in a Global Spectral Atmospheric Forecast Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The impacts of enhanced lower-tropospheric gravity wave drag induced by subgrid-scale orography on short- and medium-range forecasts as well as seasonal simulations are examined. This study reports on the enhanced performance ... -
Dryline Characteristics near Lubbock, Texas, Based on Radar and West Texas Mesonet Data for May 2005 and May 2006
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Two months of Lubbock, Texas, radar reflectivity data and West Texas Mesonet data are examined to detect dryline finelines and to describe their thermodynamic and propagation characteristics. Before sunset the moist air ...