Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions

Now showing items 1841-1860 of 3043

    • An Example of the Use of Mobile, Doppler Radar Data for Tornado Verification 

      French, Michael M.; Bluestein, Howard B.; Wicker, Louis J.; Dowell, David C.; Kramar, Matthew R. (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      On 16 May 2003, two ground-based, mobile, Doppler radars scanned a potentially tornadic supercell in the Texas Panhandle intermittently from ?0200 to 0330 UTC. The storm likely was tornadic, but because it was dark, visual ...

    • Forecasting Lightning Threat Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations 

      McCaul, Eugene W.; Goodman, Steven J.; LaCasse, Katherine M.; Cecil, Daniel J. (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time- and space-dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threats, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of ...

    • A General Analytic Method for Assessing Sensitivity to Bias of Performance Measures for Dichotomous Forecasts 

      Brill, Keith F. (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      Performance measures computed from the 2 ? 2 contingency table of outcomes for dichotomous forecasts are sensitive to bias. The method presented here evaluates how the probability of detection (POD) must change as bias ...

    • Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles 

      Novak, David R.; Bright, David R.; Brennan, Michael J. (American Meteorological Society, 2008)
      Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results ...

    • Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters 

      Durrant, Tom H.; Woodcock, Frank; Greenslade, Diana J. M. (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these ...

    • The MSG Global Instability Indices Product and Its Use as a Nowcasting Tool 

      Koenig, Marianne; de Coning, Estelle (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      The European geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite offers a variety of channels to use for various purposes, including nowcasting of convection. A number of applications have also been developed to make ...

    • A Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Seasonal Prediction 

      Min, Young-Mi; Kryjov, Vladimir N.; Park, Chung-Kyu (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      A probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction system (PMME) has been developed to provide operational seasonal forecasts at the Asia?Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC). This system is based on an ...

    • On the Improvement of COAMPS Weather Forecasts Using an Advanced Radiative Transfer Model 

      Liu, Ming; Nachamkin, Jason E.; Westphal, Douglas L. (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      Fu?Liou?s delta-four-stream (with a two-stream option) radiative transfer model has been implemented in the U.S. Navy?s Coupled Ocean?Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)1 to calculate solar and thermal infrared ...

    • Predicting Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Activity in April 

      Keith, Elinor; Xie, Lian (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      Seasonal hurricane forecasts are continuing to develop skill, although they are still subject to large uncertainties. This study uses a new methodology of cross-correlating variables against empirical orthogonal functions ...

    • A Study of the Error Covariance Matrix of Radar Rainfall Estimates in Stratiform Rain 

      Berenguer, Marc; Zawadzki, Isztar (American Meteorological Society, 2008)
      The contribution of various physical sources of uncertainty affecting radar rainfall estimates at the ground is quantified toward deriving and understanding the error covariance matrix of these estimates. The focus here ...

    • The Initiation and Evolution of Multiple Modes of Convection within a Meso-Alpha-Scale Region 

      French, Adam J.; Parker, Matthew D. (American Meteorological Society, 2008)
      On 30 March 2006, a convective episode occurred featuring isolated supercells, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) with parallel stratiform (PS) precipitation, and an MCS with leading stratiform (LS) precipitation. These ...

    • The Influence of Terrain on the Tropical Rainfall Potential Technique in Taiwan 

      Liu, Chung-Chih (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      The tropical rainfall potential (TRaP) technique is a simple concept that serves as a useful tool for forecasters in predicting the accumulated rainfall from typhoons. This research seeks to propose an algorithm for improving ...

    • Dynamical Properties of MOS Forecasts: Analysis of the ECMWF Operational Forecasting System 

      Vannitsem, S. (American Meteorological Society, 2008)
      The dynamical properties of ECMWF operational forecasts corrected by a (linear) model output statistics (MOS) technique are investigated, in light of the analysis performed in the context of low-order chaotic systems. Based ...

    • A Case Study of Deterministic Forecast Verification: Tropical Cyclone Intensity 

      Moskaitis, Jonathan R. (American Meteorological Society, 2008)
      Deterministic predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from operational forecast systems traditionally have been verified with a summary accuracy measure (e.g., mean absolute error). Since the forecast system development ...

    • Understanding Satellite-Observed Mountain-Wave Signatures Using High-Resolution Numerical Model Data 

      Feltz, W. F.; Bedka, K. M.; Otkin, J. A.; Greenwald, T.; Ackerman, S. A. (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      Prior work has shown that pilot reports of severe turbulence over Colorado often occur when complex interference or crossing wave patterns are present in satellite water vapor imagery downstream of the Rocky Mountains. To ...

    • Comments on “Observational Analysis of the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems” 

      Bunkers, Matthew J. (American Meteorological Society, 2009)

    • Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System 

      McCollor, Doug; Stull, Roland (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. ...

    • Vulnerability due to Nocturnal Tornadoes 

      Ashley, Walker S.; Krmenec, Andrew J.; Schwantes, Rick (American Meteorological Society, 2008)
      This study investigates the human vulnerability caused by tornadoes that occurred between sunset and sunrise from 1880 to 2007. Nocturnal tornadoes are theorized to enhance vulnerability because they are difficult to spot ...

    • Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center 

      Rappaport, Edward N.; Franklin, James L.; Avila, Lixion A.; Baig, Stephen R.; Beven, John L.; Blake, Eric S.; Burr, Christopher A.; Jiing, Jiann-Gwo; Juckins, Christopher A.; Knabb, Richard D.; Landsea, Christopher W.; Mainelli, Michelle; Mayfield, Max; McAdie, Colin J.; Pasch, Richard J.; Sisko, Christopher; Stewart, Stacy R.; Tribble, Ahsha N. (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
      The National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational ...

    • Elevated Convection and Castellanus: Ambiguities, Significance, and Questions 

      Corfidi, Stephen F.; Corfidi, Sarah J.; Schultz, David M. (American Meteorological Society, 2008)
      The term elevated convection is used to describe convection where the constituent air parcels originate from a layer above the planetary boundary layer. Because elevated convection can produce severe hail, damaging surface ...