Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1821-1840 of 3043
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Impact of the Intraseasonal Variability of the Western North Pacific Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Tracks
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The life cycle of the Southeast Asian?western North Pacific monsoon circulation is established by the northward migrations of the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone, and is reflected by the ... -
The Operational Use of QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Winds at the National Hurricane Center
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The utility and shortcomings of near-real-time ocean surface vector wind retrievals from the NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) in operational forecast and analysis activities at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are ... -
Reply
(American Meteorological Society, 2009) -
Comments on “Hydrometeorological Accuracy Enhancement via Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Forecasts in Complex Terrain”
(American Meteorological Society, 2009) -
Quasi-Stationary, Extreme-Rain-Producing Convective Systems Associated with Midlevel Cyclonic Circulations
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This study identifies and examines the common characteristics of several nocturnal midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that developed near mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) or cutoff lows. All of these MCSs ... -
Medium-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Canada’s New 33-km Deterministic Global Operational System
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) recently implemented a 33-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with improved physics, for medium-range weather forecasts. Quantitative precipitation ... -
A New Scheme for Improving the Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation Anomalies
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A new scheme is developed to improve the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in the East Asian and western Pacific region. The scheme is applied to the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for ... -
Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Despite overall improvements in numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, large short-term forecast errors of sea level pressure and 2-m temperature still occur. This is especially true for the west coast of North ... -
Synoptic-Scale Characteristics and Precursors of Cool-Season Precipitation Events at St. John’s, Newfoundland, 1979–2005
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The issue of quantitative precipitation forecasting continues to be a significant challenge in operational forecasting, particularly in regions susceptible to frequent and extreme precipitation events. St. John?s, Newfoundland, ... -
Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: Model Sensitivity to the Injection Height
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A detailed evaluation of NOAA?s Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is a fundamental part of its development and further refinement. In this work, particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5-?m (PM2.5) concentration ... -
Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)An overview of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s (NOAA) current operational Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is presented. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for ... -
Proposed Conceptual Taxonomy for Proper Identification and Classification of Tornado Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A practical approach is recommended for identifying and archiving tornado events, based on the use of definitions that label all vortices as either type I, II, or III tornadoes. This methodology will provide a more meaningful ... -
Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea Level Pressure along the East and West Coasts of the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Despite recent advances in numerical weather prediction, major errors in short-range forecasts still occur. To gain insight into the origin and nature of model forecast errors, error frequencies and magnitudes need to be ... -
The Performance of MOS in the Digital Age
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Model output statistics (MOS) guidance forecasts have been produced for over three decades. Until recently, MOS guidance was prepared for observing stations and formatted in text bulletins while official National Weather ... -
Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes?no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration ... -
Medium Lead-Time Predictability of Intraseasonal Variability of Rainfall in West Africa
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The variability of the West African monsoon on the intraseasonal time scale is a major issue for agricultural strategy, as the occurrence of dry spells can strongly impact yields of rain-fed crops. This study investigates ... -
Environmental Ingredients for Supercells and Tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Hurricane Ivan (2004) was a prolific producer of tornadoes as it made landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Prior researchers have revealed that the tornadic cells within tropical cyclone (TC) rainbands are often supercellular ... -
Reply
(American Meteorological Society, 2009) -
Composite Meteorological Forcing of Puerto Rican Springtime Flood Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The central Antilles Islands experience short periods of heavy rainfall during the spring season (April and May) when trade winds weaken across the Caribbean Sea. Composite analysis of the top 10 flood events in the period ... -
A New Diffusion Scheme for Numerical Models Based on Full Irreversibility
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)In this work, the forecast accuracy of a numerical weather prediction model is improved by emulating physical dissipation as suggested by the second law of thermodynamics, which controls the irreversible evolutionary ...