Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1801-1820 of 3043
-
The Formation and Early Evolution of the Greensburg, Kansas, Tornadic Supercell on 4 May 2007
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)During the evening of 4 May 2007, a large, powerful tornado devastated Greensburg, Kansas. The synoptic and mesoscale environments of the parent supercell that spawned this and other tornadoes are described from operational ... -
Comments on “The North Dakota Tornadic Supercells of 18 July 2004: Issues Concerning High LCL Heights and Evapotranspiration”
(American Meteorological Society, 2009) -
Analysis of Intense Poleward Water Vapor Transports into High Latitudes of Western North America
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Significant cool season precipitation along the western coast of North America is often associated with intense water vapor transport (IWVT) from the Pacific Ocean during favorable synoptic-scale flow regimes. These ... -
Diagnosis of the Initial and Forecast Errors in the Numerical Simulation of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Emily (2005)
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A diagnostic study is conducted to examine the initial and forecast errors in a short-range numerical simulation of Hurricane Emily?s (2005) early rapid intensification. The initial conditions and the simulated hurricane ... -
A Conceptual Model for the Influence of TUTT Cells on Tropical Cyclone Motion in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Eleven (10 Pacific, 1 Atlantic) tropical cyclones (TCs), which include typhoons/hurricanes and tropical storms, are examined using the latest 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) ... -
Evolution and Structure of Two Severe Cyclonic Bora Events: Contrast between the Northern and Southern Adriatic
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)While statistical analyses and observations show that severe bora with maximum gusts exceeding 40 m s?1 can occur in all parts of the Adriatic, the bora research to date has been mainly focused on the dynamics and structure ... -
A New Approach to Forecasting Typhoon Frequency over the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This paper presents a new approach for forecasting the typhoon frequency of the western North Pacific (WNP). The year-to-year increase or decrease in typhoon frequency is first forecasted to yield a net typhoon frequency ... -
Statistical Extension of the National Hurricane Center 5-Day Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks and wind speeds are extended in time to produce spatially disaggregated probability forecasts for landfall location and intensity, using a weighted ... -
Evaluations of NAM Forecasts on Midtropospheric Perturbation-Induced Convective Storms over the U.S. Northern Plains
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)In the U.S. northern plains, summer progressive convective storms that occur in weakly forced environments are often coupled with short-wave perturbations that are embedded in the midlevel northwesterly flow. These ... -
Deterministic Ensemble Forecasts Using Gene-Expression Programming
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A method called gene-expression programming (GEP), which uses symbolic regression to form a nonlinear combination of ensemble NWP forecasts, is introduced. From a population of competing and evolving algorithms (each of ... -
Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part I: Analysis Errors and Short-Term NAM and GFS Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This paper verifies extratropical cyclones around North America and the adjacent oceans within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) models ... -
Difficulties with Correcting Radar Rainfall Estimates Based on Rain Gauge Data: A Case Study of Severe Weather in Montana on 16–17 June 2007
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The principal source of information for operational flash flood monitoring and warning issuance is weather radar?based quantitative estimates of precipitation. Rain gauges are considered truth for the purposes of validating ... -
Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part II: The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This paper verifies the strengths and positions of extratropical cyclones around North America and the adjacent oceans within the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at the National Centers for Environmental ... -
Strong Cross-Barrier Flow under Stable Conditions Producing Intense Winter Orographic Precipitation: A Case Study over the Subtropical Central Andes
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The most intense orographic precipitation event over the subtropical central Andes (36°?30°S) during winter 2005 was examined using observational data and a regional model simulation. The Eta-Programa Regional de Meteorología ... -
Verification with Variograms
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The verification of a gridded forecast field, for example, one produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, cannot be performed on a gridpoint-by-gridpoint basis; that type of approach would ignore the spatial ... -
EDITORIAL
(American Meteorological Society, 2009) -
Explicit Forecasts of Hail Occurrence and Expected Hail Size Using the GEM–HAILCAST System with a Rainfall Filter
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)HAILCAST is a numerical model developed specifically to predict the size of the largest hail reaching the ground. It consists of a steady-state cloud model combined with a time-dependent hailstone growth model. The regional ... -
A Preliminary Statistical Study of Correlations between Inflow Feeder Clouds, Supercell or Multicell Thunderstorms, and Severe Weather
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This study examines the relationship between severe weather and organized lines of cumulus towers, called feeder clouds, which form in the inflow region of supercell and multicell thunderstorms. Using Geostationary Operational ... -
A Study of the Error Covariance Matrix of Radar Rainfall Estimates in Stratiform Rain. Part II: Scale Dependence
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The contribution of various physical sources of uncertainty affecting radar rainfall estimates at the ground has been recently quantified at a resolution typically used in schemes assimilating rainfall at the ground onto ... -
The Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm for the Polarimetric WSR-88D: Description and Application to an MCS
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This paper contains a description of the most recent version of the hydrometeor classification algorithm for polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D). This version contains several modifications and ...