Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1861-1880 of 3043
-
An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts ... -
The Skill of ECMWF Precipitation and Temperature Predictions in the Danube Basin as Forcings of Hydrological Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)In this paper the suitability of ECMWF forecasts for hydrological applications is evaluated. This study focuses on three spatial scales: the upper Danube (which is upstream of Bratislava, Slovakia), the entire Danube ... -
Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud Forecasts at Airports
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)At Paris? international airport, named Roissy Charles de Gaulle (CdG), air traffic safety and management as well as economic issues related to poor visibility conditions are crucial. Meteorologists face the challenge of ... -
Multiclass ROC Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have become a common analysis tool for evaluating forecast discrimination: the ability of a forecast system to distinguish between events and nonevents. As is implicit in that ... -
An Algorithm for Tracking Eyes of Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A tropical cyclone (TC) eye tracking (TCET) algorithm is presented in this study to objectively identify and track the eye and center of a tropical cyclone using radar reflectivity data. Twelve typhoon cases were studied ... -
Correlations between Analyses and Forecasts of Banded Heavy Snow Ingredients and Observed Snowfall
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)North American Mesoscale (NAM) model forecasts of the occurrence, magnitude, depth, and persistence of ingredients previously shown to be useful in the diagnosis of banded and/or heavy snowfall potential are examined for ... -
Descending Reflectivity Cores in Supercell Thunderstorms Observed by Mobile Radars and in a High-Resolution Numerical Simulation
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This paper is motivated by the recent interest in the ?descending reflectivity cores? (DRCs) that have been observed in some supercell thunderstorms prior to the development or intensification of low-level rotation. The ... -
An Assessment of National Weather Service Warning Procedures for Ice Storms
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Ice storms cause substantial damage to the United States every winter season, and the costs have increased in recent years. Accurate prediction and timely dissemination of warnings are effective ways to reduce the effects, ... -
Investigation of a Severe Downburst Storm near Phoenix, Arizona, as Seen by a Mobile Doppler Radar and the KIWA WSR-88D
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radar (SMART-R) was deployed near Phoenix, Arizona, during the summer of 2004. The goal was to capture a severe microburst at close range to understand the low-altitude ... -
Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A new product for estimating the 24-h probability of TC formation in individual 5° ? 5° subregions of the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific tropical basins is developed. This product uses ... -
A Case Study of Severe Winter Convection in the Midwest
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Between 2100 UTC 11 February 2003 and 0200 UTC 12 February 2003, a line of thunderstorms passed swiftly through parts of eastern Iowa and into north-central Illinois. Although this storm somewhat resembled a warm season, ... -
Probabilistic Forecasts of (Severe) Thunderstorms for the Purpose of Issuing a Weather Alarm in the Netherlands
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)The development and verification of a new model output statistics (MOS) system is described; this system is intended to help forecasters decide whether a weather alarm for severe thunderstorms, based on high total lightning ... -
Comparison of Methods Used to Generate Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over South America
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)In this work, the quality of several probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) is examined. The analysis is focused over South America during a 2-month period in the warm season. Several ways of generating ... -
Value of Real-Time Vegetation Fraction to Forecasts of Severe Convection in High-Resolution Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Near-real-time values of vegetation fraction are incorporated into a 2-km nested version of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model and compared to forecasts from a control run that uses ... -
Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to ... -
On the Impact of WRF Model Vertical Grid Resolution on Midwest Summer Rainfall Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model exploratory sensitivity simulations were performed to determine the impact of vertical grid resolution (VGR) on the forecast skill of Midwest summer rainfall. Varying the VGR ... -
Verification Techniques and Simple Theoretical Forecast Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)This paper investigates the performance of some skill measures [e.g., linear error in probability space, (LEPS), relative operating characteristics score (ROCS), Brier scores, and proportion correct rates], commonly used ... -
On High Winds and Foehn Warming Associated with Mountain-Wave Events in the Western Foothills of the Southern Appalachian Mountains
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Extremely high winds of 40?49 m s?1 [90?110 miles per hour (mph)] were reported across the western foothills of the southern Appalachian Mountains on 22?23 December 2004, 17 October 2006, 24?25 February 2007, and 1 March ... -
Potential Impacts of the Saharan Air Layer on Numerical Model Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Tropical cyclones have devastating impacts on countries across large parts of the globe, including the Atlantic basin. Thus, forecasting of the genesis of Atlantic tropical cyclones is important, but this problem remains ... -
Emergency Management Decision Making during Severe Weather
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)Emergency managers make time-sensitive decisions in order to protect the public from threats including severe weather. Simulation and questionnaires were used to capture the decision-making process of emergency managers ...