Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1741-1760 of 3043
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CORRIGENDUM: False Alarm Rate or False Alarm Ratio?
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Two items need to be clarified from an earlier work of the authors. The first is that the layout of the 2 ? 2 contingency table was reversed from standard practice, with the titles of ?observed event? and ?forecast? ... -
Naval Research Laboratory Multiscale Targeting Guidance for T-PARC and TCS-08
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)As part of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the Office of Naval Research?s (ONR?s) Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS-08) experiments, a ... -
Improvements to an Operational Clear-Air Turbulence Diagnostic Index by Addition of a Divergence Trend Term
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)An operational clear-air turbulence (CAT) diagnostic index has been modified to improve its performance. The Ellrod?Knapp turbulence index (TI) was developed in the early 1990s and is in use at many aviation forecasting ... -
Fog Prediction from a Multimodel Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)A new multivariable-based diagnostic fog-forecasting method has been developed at NCEP. The selection of these variables, their thresholds, and the influences on fog forecasting are discussed. With the inclusion of the ... -
Tropical Cyclone Convection and Intensity Analysis Using Differenced Infrared and Water Vapor Imagery
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A technique to identify and quantify intense convection in tropical cyclones (TCs) using bispectral, geostationary satellite imagery is explored. This technique involves differencing the water vapor (WV) and infrared window ... -
A New Method for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Probability Program (HPP) was implemented in 1983 to estimate the probability that the center of a tropical cyclone would pass within 60 n mi of a set of specified points out ... -
A Revised Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)A revised rapid intensity index (RII) is developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The RII uses large-scale predictors from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) to estimate the ... -
Convectively Induced Transverse Band Signatures in Satellite Imagery
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Transverse cirrus bands have commonly been observed in the outflow of thunderstorms, though little literature exists on the subject. The primary objective of this paper is to characterize the transverse band signature in ... -
Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Application of the SAL Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)In this study, a recently introduced feature-based quality measure called SAL, which provides information about the structure, amplitude, and location of a quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in a prespecified domain, ... -
Applying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit ... -
Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed probability forecast product developed at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and adopted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is evaluated for U.S. ... -
Synoptic Environments Associated with the Training of Convective Cells
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Many studies have been done on synoptically forced systems and heavy rainfall, but little research has gone into the forecasting of training convective storms specifically in a synoptically forced environment. Training ... -
Utilizing Normalized Anomalies to Assess Synoptic-Scale Weather Events in the Western United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Synoptic-scale weather events over the western United States are objectively ranked based on their associated tropospheric anomalies. Data from the NCEP 6-h reanalysis fields from 1948 to 2006 are compared to a 30-yr ... -
Application of Object-Based Verification Techniques to Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Both the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) and contiguous rain area (CRA) object-based verification techniques have been used to analyze precipitation forecasts from two sets of ensembles to determine ... -
Analysis of Outflow Boundary Collisions in North-Central Alabama
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Ninety-four outflow boundary (OB) collisions were documented in north-central Alabama over the summers of 2005?07 using the Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) dual-polarimetric radar located ... -
The Formation of Multiple Squall Lines and the Impacts of WSR-88D Radial Winds in a WRF Simulation
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)A detailed observational and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model analysis utilizing Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D), surface, and upper-air observations, as well as Geostationary Operational ... -
Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4-km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast ... -
Tornadoes without NWS Warning
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)During a 5-yr period of study from 2000 to 2004, slightly more than 26% of all reported tornadoes across the United States occurred without an NWS warning being issued. This study examines some of the reasons behind why ... -
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate ... -
Three Spatial Verification Techniques: Cluster Analysis, Variogram, and Optical Flow
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Three spatial verification techniques are applied to three datasets. The datasets consist of a mixture of real and artificial forecasts, and corresponding observations, designed to aid in better understanding the effects ...