Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1761-1780 of 3043
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New Developments of the Intensity-Scale Technique within the Spatial Verification Methods Intercomparison Project
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The intensity-scale verification technique introduced in 2004 by Casati, Ross, and Stephenson is revisited and improved. Recalibration is no longer performed, and the intensity-scale skill score for biased forecasts is ... -
Evaluation of WRF Model Output for Severe Weather Forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This study assesses forecasts of the preconvective and near-storm environments from the convection-allowing models run for the 2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) ... -
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods: Identifying Skillful Spatial Scales Using the Fractions Skill Score
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The fractions skill score (FSS) was one of the measures that formed part of the Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods project. The FSS was used to assess a common dataset that consisted of real and ... -
Verification of Mesoscale NWP Forecasts of Abrupt Cold Frontal Wind Changes
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)During a wildfire, a sharp wind change can lead to an abrupt increase in fire activity and change the rate of spread, endangering firefighters working on what had been the flank of the fire. In southeastern Australia, ... -
Neighborhood Verification: A Strategy for Rewarding Close Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)High-resolution forecasts may be quite useful even when they do not match the observations exactly. Neighborhood verification is a strategy for evaluating the ?closeness? of the forecast to the observations within space?time ... -
An Intercomparison of Simulated Rainfall and Evapotranspiration Associated with a Mesoscale Convective System over West Africa
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)An evaluation of precipitation and evapotranspiration simulated by mesoscale models is carried out within the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program. Six models performed simulations of a mesoscale ... -
Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis Applied to African Easterly Waves
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) coupled to the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to generate ensemble analyses and forecasts of a strong African easterly wave (AEW) ... -
The Impacts of Multiscale Weather Systems on Freezing Rain and Snowstorms over Southern China
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This paper investigated the interactions between the synoptic patterns, quasi-stationary fronts, eastward-propagating cloud clusters from the Tibetan Plateau, surface conditions, and atmospheric stratification processes ... -
Toward Better Understanding of the Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) Method for Spatial Forecast Verification
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The contiguous rain area (CRA) method for spatial forecast verification is a features-based approach that evaluates the properties of forecast rain systems, namely, their location, size, intensity, and finescale pattern. ... -
Radar Refractivity Retrievals in Oklahoma: Insights into Operational Benefits and Limitations
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The 2007 and 2008 spring refractivity experiments at KTLX investigated the potential utility of high-resolution, near-surface refractivity measurements to operational forecasting. During these experiments, forecasters at ... -
Synoptic Climatological Analyses of Extreme Snowfalls in the Sierra Nevada
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The Sierra Nevada of eastern California receives heavy snowfall each year. However, it is the snowstorms that deposit heavy snowfall in a relatively short period of time that can cause major inconveniences and even ... -
An Object-Oriented Multiscale Verification Scheme
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Object-oriented verification methodology is becoming more and more common in the evaluation of model performance on high-resolution grids. The research herein describes an advanced version of an object-oriented approach ... -
Factors Affecting Surface Wind Speeds in Gravity Waves and Wake Lows
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Ducted gravity waves and wake lows have been associated with numerous documented cases of ?severe? winds (>25 m s?1) and wind damage. These winds are associated with the pressure perturbations and transient mesoscale ... -
A Displacement and Amplitude Score Employing an Optical Flow Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A field verification measure for precipitation forecasts is presented that combines distance and amplitude errors. It is based on an optical flow algorithm that defines a vector field that deforms, or morphs, one image to ... -
Global 4DVAR Assimilation and Forecast Experiments Using AMSU Observations over Land. Part II: Impacts of Assimilating Surface-Sensitive Channels on the African Monsoon during AMMA
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Observations from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A and -B (AMSU-A and -B) have been more intensively used over sea than over land because of large uncertainties about the land surface emissivity and the skin temperature. ... -
Global 4DVAR Assimilation and Forecast Experiments Using AMSU Observations over Land. Part I: Impacts of Various Land Surface Emissivity Parameterizations
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)To improve the assimilation of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A and -B (AMSU-A and -B) observations over land, three methods, based either on an estimation of the land emissivity or the land skin temperature directly ... -
Reply
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Edwards and Thompson have made comprehensive and thorough comments concerning the methods, accuracy, and results in a case study by Kellenbenz et al. These comments questioned the representativeness of model-derived soundings ... -
Verification of NWP Model Analyses and Radiosonde Humidity Data with GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Estimates during AMMA
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This paper assesses the performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS) operational analysis and NCEP?NCAR reanalyses I and II over West Africa, using precipitable ... -
Seasonal Ensemble Predictions of West African Monsoon Precipitation in the ECMWF System 3 with a Focus on the AMMA Special Observing Period in 2006
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The West Africa monsoon precipitation of the ECMWF operational Seasonal Forecast System (SYS3) is evaluated at a lead time of 2?4 months in a 49-yr hindcast dataset, with special attention paid to the African Monsoon ... -
The Drying Out of Soil Moisture following Rainfall in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model and Implications for Malaria Prediction in West Africa
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This paper investigates the response of the land surface and the lowest section of the atmospheric surface layer to rainfall events and through the subsequent drying out period. The impacts of these sequences of rainfall ...