Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1721-1740 of 3043
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Observations of the Relationship between 700-mb Temperatures and Severe Weather Reports across the Contiguous United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The relationship between 700-mb temperatures and convective severe storm reports is examined using data from 1993 to 2006 for the contiguous United States. Severe storm reports are used as a rough ?proxy? for the occurrence ... -
An Objective Method of Evaluating and Devising Storm-Tracking Algorithms
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Although storm-tracking algorithms are a key ingredient of nowcasting systems, evaluation of storm-tracking algorithms has been indirect, labor intensive, or nonspecific. A set of easily computable bulk statistics that can ... -
Reduction of Middle-Atmospheric Forecast Bias through Improvement in Satellite Radiance Quality Control
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This article discusses a practical problem faced in operational atmospheric forecasting and data assimilation, and efforts to improve forecast quality through the choice of quality control parameters. The need to utilize ... -
On the Ability of Global Ensemble Prediction Systems to Predict Tropical Cyclone Track Probabilities
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The ability of ensemble prediction systems to predict the probability that a tropical cyclone will fall within a certain area is evaluated. Ensemble forecasts of up to 5 days issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range ... -
Growth of Spread in Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, a 10-member 4-km grid-spacing Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system was run in real time to provide experimental severe weather forecasting guidance. ... -
An Observational and High-Resolution Model Analysis of Gale Wind Events in the Gulf of California
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s (NOAA?s) National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, provides high-seas forecasts to portions of the eastern Pacific ... -
Advances in Predicting Continental Low Stratus with a Regional NWP Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)In the eastern Alpine region, subinversion cloudiness associated with elevated temperature inversions is a frequent phenomenon in autumn and winter, which often persists for several days. Although the prediction of fog and ... -
Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Climatology in a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model: Impacts of Convective Parameterization on Systematic Biases
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)In an attempt to develop a better simulation of the climatology of monsoon precipitation in climate models, this paper investigates the impacts of different convective closures on systematic biases of an Indian monsoon ... -
Evaluation of Regional Aircraft Observations Using TAMDAR
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A multiyear evaluation of a regional aircraft observation system [Tropospheric Aircraft Meteorological Data Reports (TAMDAR)] is presented. TAMDAR observation errors are compared with errors in traditional reports from ... -
Observations of Gulf of Tehuantepec Gap Wind Events from QuikSCAT: An Updated Event Climatology and Operational Model Evaluation
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A climatology of gale- and storm-force gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is constructed for the first time using 10 yr of ocean surface vector wind data from the SeaWinds scatterometer on board NASA?s Quick ... -
Synoptic Typing of Extreme Cool-Season Precipitation Events at St. John’s, Newfoundland, 1979–2005
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) continues to be a significant challenge in operational forecasting, particularly in regions susceptible to extreme precipitation events. St. John?s, Newfoundland, Canada (CYYT), ... -
Improvement in the Use of an Operational Constellation of GPS Radio Occultation Receivers in Weather Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)As of May 2007, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented a new Global Data Assimilation System. This system incorporated the assimilation of global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation ... -
An Improved Statistical Scheme for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in South China
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)This study describes an improved statistical scheme for predicting the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall along the coast of south China using data from 1965 to 2005. Based on the factors affecting ... -
Household Evacuation Decision Making and the Benefits of Improved Hurricane Forecasting: Developing a Framework for Assessment
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Hurricane warnings are the primary sources of information that enable the public to assess the risk and develop responses to threats from hurricanes. These warnings have significantly reduced the number of hurricane-related ... -
Snow-to-Liquid Ratio Variability and Prediction at a High-Elevation Site in Utah’s Wasatch Mountains
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Contemporary snowfall forecasting is a three-step process involving a quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), determination of precipitation type, and application of a snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR). The final step is often ... -
Sensitivity of Surface Air Temperature Analyses to Background and Observation Errors
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)A two-dimensional variational method is used to analyze 2-m air temperatures over a limited domain (4° latitude ? 4° longitude) in order to evaluate approaches to examining the sensitivity of the temperature analysis to ... -
Application of Spatial Verification Methods to Idealized and NWP-Gridded Precipitation Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Several spatial forecast verification methods have been developed that are suited for high-resolution precipitation forecasts. They can account for the spatial coherence of precipitation and give credit to a forecast that ... -
Nocturnal Tornado Climatology
(American Meteorological Society, 2009)Very few studies on nocturnal tornadoes have been performed, and operational forecasting of nocturnal tornadoes is often guided by the results of studies that are biased toward daytime tornadoes. However, it is likely that ... -
Revisiting the 3–4 April 1974 Super Outbreak of Tornadoes
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The Super Outbreak of tornadoes over the central and eastern United States on 3?4 April 1974 remains the most outstanding severe convective weather episode on record in the continental United States. The outbreak far ... -
The Influence of Monsoonal Gulf Surges on Precipitation and Diurnal Precipitation Patterns in Central Arizona
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)North American gulf-surge events, northward low-level influxes of cool and moist air from the Gulf of California, were statistically related to monsoonal precipitation and the associated diurnal cycle for the state of ...