Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1581-1600 of 3043
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Challenges in Mesoscale Prediction of a Nocturnal Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer and Implications for Operational Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A numerical study using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) was performed to assess the impact of initial and boundary conditions, the ... -
Assessment of Western North Pacific 96- and 120-h Track Guidance and Present Forecastability
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Because the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has only four dynamical models for guidance in making 96- and 120-h track forecasts, an opportunity exists for improving the consensus forecast by the proper removal of a ... -
Statistics of Heavy Rainfall Occurrences in Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The seasonal variations of heavy rainfall days over Taiwan are analyzed using 6-yr (1997?2002) hourly rainfall data from about 360 rainfall stations, including high-spatial-resolution Automatic Rainfall and Meteorological ... -
Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, ... -
Validation Schemes for Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Evaluation of Operational Models for U.S. Landfalling Cases
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A scheme for validating quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for landfalling tropical cyclones is developed and presented here. This scheme takes advantage of the unique characteristics of tropical cyclone rainfall ... -
A Two-Season Impact Study of Satellite and In Situ Data in the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Observing system experiments are used to quantify the contributions to the forecast made by conventional in situ and remotely sensed satellite data. The impact of each data type is assessed by comparing the analyses and ... -
Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)An operational model used to predict tropical cyclone wind structure in terms of significant wind radii (i.e., 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii, where 1 kt = 0.52 m s?1) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrati ... -
A Statistical Model to Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)An alternative 24-h statistical hurricane intensity model is presented and verified for 13 hurricanes during the 2004?05 seasons. The model uses a new method involving a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to select from ... -
A Numerical Study of the Effect of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The impact of dissipative heating on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts is investigated using the U.S. Navy?s operational mesoscale model (the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System). A physically ... -
Consensus of Numerical Model Forecasts of Significant Wave Heights
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The operational consensus forecast (OCF) scheme uses past performance to bias correct and combine numerical forecasts to produce an improved forecast at locations where recent observations are available. Here, OCF uses ... -
Improved Detection Using Negative Elevation Angles for Mountaintop WSR-88Ds. Part III: Simulations of Shallow Convective Activity over and around Lake Ontario
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)During the winter, lake-effect snowstorms that form over Lake Ontario represent a significant weather hazard for the populace around the lake. These storms, which typically are only 2 km deep, frequently can produce narrow ... -
The Effect of Probabilistic Information on Threshold Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The study reported here asks whether the use of probabilistic information indicating forecast uncertainty improves the quality of deterministic weather decisions. Participants made realistic wind speed forecasts based on ... -
Warm Season Mesoscale Superensemble Precipitation Forecasts in the Southeastern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)With current computational limitations, the accuracy of high-resolution precipitation forecasts has limited temporal and spatial resolutions. However, with the recent development of the superensemble technique, the potential ... -
A Quantitative Analysis of the Enhanced-V Feature in Relation to Severe Weather
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Early enhanced-V studies used 8-km ground-sampled distance and 30-min temporal-sampling Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) infrared (IR) imagery. In contrast, the ground-sampled distance of current ... -
MesoLAPS Predictions of Low-Level Convergence Lines over Northeastern Australia
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The prediction of low-level convergence lines over northeastern Australia such as those which give rise to the ?morning glory? phenomenon and the north Australian cloud line (NACL) are investigated using MesoLAPS, a mesoscale ... -
SHIPS-MI Forecast Analysis of Hurricanes Claudette (2003), Isabel (2003), and Dora (1999)
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Three hurricanes, Claudette (2003), Isabel (2003), and Dora (1999), were selected to examine the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery (SHIPS-MI) forecast accuracy for three particular ... -
The Environmental and Inner-Core Conditions Governing the Intensity of Hurricane Erin (2001)
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The evolution of Hurricane Erin (2001) is presented from the perspective of its environmental and inner-core conditions, particularly as they are characterized in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with ... -
Analysis of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific for 2000 and 2001
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)High-resolution satellite data and NCEP?NCAR reanalysis data are used to analyze 34 tropical cyclone (TC) genesis events in the western North Pacific during the 2000 and 2001 typhoon seasons. Three types of synoptic-scale ... -
The Use of a Vortex Insertion Technique to Simulate the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Michael (2000)
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)On 19 October 2000, Hurricane Michael merged with an approaching baroclinic trough over the western North Atlantic Ocean south of Nova Scotia. As the hurricane moved over cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs; less than ... -
A Satellite-Based Fog Detection Scheme Using Screen Air Temperature
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A warm fog detection (air temperature > ?5°C) algorithm using a combination of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-12 (GOES-12) observations and screen temperature data based on an operational numerical model ...