Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions

Now showing items 1601-1620 of 3043

    • Accuracy of Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Guidance 

      Elsberry, Russell L.; Lambert, Tara D. B.; Boothe, Mark A. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      Five statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques available at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) during the 2003 and 2004 Atlantic and eastern North Pacific seasons were evaluated within three ...

    • Observational Analysis of the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems 

      Jirak, Israel L.; Cotton, William R. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have a large influence on the weather over the central United States during the warm season by generating essential rainfall and severe weather. To gain insight into the predictability ...

    • Evaluation of a Technique for Radar Identification of Large Hail across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains of the United States 

      Donavon, Rodney A.; Jungbluth, Karl A. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      Radar data were analyzed for severe thunderstorms that produced severe hail (>19 mm diameter) across the central and northern plains of the United States during the 2001?04 convective seasons. Results showed a strongly ...

    • The Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information 

      Lakshmanan, Valliappa; Smith, Travis; Stumpf, Gregory; Hondl, Kurt (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      The Warning Decision Support System?Integrated Information (WDSS-II) is the second generation of a system of tools for the analysis, diagnosis, and visualization of remotely sensed weather data. WDSS-II provides a number ...

    • Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems 

      Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Weiss, Steven J.; Corfidi, Stephen F. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different ...

    • Mountain Wave Signatures in MODIS 6.7-μm Imagery and Their Relation to Pilot Reports of Turbulence 

      Uhlenbrock, N. L.; Bedka, K. M.; Feltz, W. F.; Ackerman, S. A. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      A technique for nowcasting turbulent mountain waves over the Front Range of the state of Colorado is investigated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) water vapor (6.7 ?m) channel imagery. Pilot ...

    • Precipitation Forecast Verification of the Indian Summer Monsoon with Intercomparison of Three Diverse Regions 

      Mandal, Vikramaditya; De, Utpal K.; Basu, Biplab K. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      The Indian summer monsoon precipitation forecast, as well as its verification, are always of great interest because of their socioeconomic impact on the Indian subcontinent. The present work highlights the verification of ...

    • CORRIGENDUM 

      Legg, T. P.; Mylne, K. R. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      In an earlier paper the authors described the use of ensemble information for the generation of early warnings of defined severe-weather events within the United Kingdom. A comprehensive verification of the system was also ...

    • The New French Operational Radar Rainfall Product. Part II: Validation 

      Tabary, P.; Desplats, J.; Do Khac, K.; Eideliman, F.; Gueguen, C.; Heinrich, J-C. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      A new operational radar-based rainfall product has been developed at Météo-France and is currently being deployed within the French operational network. The new quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) product is based ...

    • Dynamical Tropical Cyclone 96- and 120-h Track Forecast Errors in the Western North Pacific 

      Kehoe, Ryan M.; Boothe, Mark A.; Elsberry, Russell L. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been issuing 96- and 120-h track forecasts since May 2003. It uses four dynamical models that provide guidance at these forecast intervals and relies heavily on a consensus of these ...

    • Use of Information by National Weather Service Forecasters and Emergency Managers during CALJET and PACJET-2001 

      Morss, Rebecca E.; Ralph, F. Martin (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      Winter storms making landfall in western North America can generate heavy precipitation and other significant weather, leading to floods, landslides, and other hazards that cause significant damage and loss of life. To ...

    • The New French Operational Radar Rainfall Product. Part I: Methodology 

      Tabary, P. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      A new radar-based rainfall product has been developed at Météo-France and is currently being deployed within the French operational Application Radar à la Météorologie Infra-Synoptique (ARAMIS) radar network. The rainfall ...

    • Real-Time Forecasting of Snowfall Using a Neural Network 

      Roebber, Paul J.; Butt, Melissa R.; Reinke, Sarah J.; Grafenauer, Thomas J. (American Meteorological Society, 2007)
      A set of 53 snowfall reports was collected in real time from the 2004/05 and 2005/06 cold seasons (November?March). Three snowfall-amount forecast methods were tested: neural network, surface-temperature-based 676-USDT ...

    • Columbia Gorge Gap Winds: Their Climatological Influence and Synoptic Evolution 

      Sharp, Justin; Mass, Clifford F. (American Meteorological Society, 2004)
      This paper quantifies the impact of the Columbia Gorge on the weather and climate within and downstream of this mesoscale gap and examines the influence of synoptic-scale flow on gorge weather. Easterly winds occur more ...

    • The ROC Curve and the Area under It as Performance Measures 

      Marzban, Caren (American Meteorological Society, 2004)
      The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a two-dimensional measure of classification performance. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a scalar measure gauging one facet of performance. In this short article, ...

    • A Consolidated CLIPER Model for Improved August–September ENSO Prediction Skill 

      Lloyd-Hughes, Benjamin; Saunders, Mark A.; Rockett, Paul (American Meteorological Society, 2004)
      A prime challenge for ENSO seasonal forecast models is to predict boreal summer ENSO conditions at lead. August?September ENSO has a strong influence on Atlantic hurricane activity, Northwest Pacific typhoon activity, and ...

    • An Observational Study of Cold Season–Banded Precipitation in Northeast U.S. Cyclones 

      Novak, David R.; Bosart, Lance F.; Keyser, Daniel; Waldstreicher, Jeff S. (American Meteorological Society, 2004)
      A climatological and composite study of banded precipitation in the northeast United States during the cold season (October?April) is presented. Precipitation systems in the northeast United States in April 1995 and from ...

    • Finescale Surface Observations of the Dryline: A Mobile Mesonet Perspective 

      Pietrycha, Albert E.; Rasmussen, Erik N. (American Meteorological Society, 2004)
      Mobile mesonet line normal, time-to-space converted data analysis on three meridional drylines that occurred in west Texas on 10 June 1999 and 5 May 2000 are presented herein; two occurred in a quiescent environment on 5 ...

    • Prediction of August Atlantic Basin Hurricane Activity 

      Blake, Eric S.; Gray, William M. (American Meteorological Society, 2004)
      Although skillful seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin are now a reality, large gaps remain in our understanding of observed variations in the distribution of activity within the hurricane season. The month ...

    • Does Increased Predicted Warm-Season Rainfall Indicate Enhanced Likelihood of Rain Occurrence? 

      Gallus, William A.; Segal, Moti (American Meteorological Society, 2004)
      The likelihood of simulated rainfall above a specified threshold being observed is evaluated as a function of the amounts predicted by two mesoscale models. Evaluations are performed for 20 warm-season mesoscale convective ...