Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1561-1580 of 3043
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Tornadoes from Squall Lines and Bow Echoes. Part I: Climatological Distribution
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The primary objective of this study was to estimate the percentage of U.S. tornadoes that are spawned annually by squall lines and bow echoes, or quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). This was achieved by examining radar ... -
Observations of a Severe, Left-Moving Supercell on 4 May 2003
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A case study of a left-moving supercell with a rapid motion is presented to (i) elucidate differences in anvil orientations between left- and right-moving supercells and (ii) highlight the interaction of the left mover ... -
Evaluation of Real-Time High-Resolution MM5 Predictions over the Great Lakes Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Real-time high-resolution mesoscale predictions using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) over the Great Lakes region are evaluated for the 2002/03 winter and 2003 summer seasons ... -
Improved Detection of Severe Storms Using Experimental Fine-Resolution WSR-88D Measurements
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Doppler velocity and reflectivity measurements from Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars provide important input to forecasters as they prepare to issue short-term severe storm and tornado warnings. ... -
Some Practical Considerations Regarding Horizontal Resolution in the First Generation of Operational Convection-Allowing NWP
(American Meteorological Society, 2008)During the 2005 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment two different high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model were used to produce 30-h forecasts ... -
CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2008) -
Dual-Doppler Observations of Severe Tropical Storm Maggie 1999
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Severe Tropical Storm Maggie crossed Hong Kong, China, in June 1999. The dual-Doppler winds of Maggie captured by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) S-band Doppler weather radar array were studied. The tracks of Maggie's ... -
Numerical Guidance Methods for Decision Support in Aviation Meteorological Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Numerical guidance methods for decision making support of aviation meteorological forecasters are presented. The methods have been developed to enhance the usefulness of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data and ... -
A Comparison of Two Banded, Heavy Snowstorms with Very Different Synoptic Settings
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)Two banded, heavy snowstorms that occurred over the northern mid-Atlantic region are compared and contrasted. On 6?7 January 2002, a narrow, intense band of heavy snow was observed, along with several other weaker bands, ... -
Weather Forecasting by Humans—Heuristics and Decision Making
(American Meteorological Society, 2004)The decision-making literature contains considerable information about how humans approach tasks involving uncertainty using heuristics. Although there is some reason to believe that weather forecasters are not identical ... -
Revised Prediction of Seasonal Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity from 1 August
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Predictions of the remainder of the season?s Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August have been issued by Gray and his colleagues at the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University since 1984. ... -
A Probability Model for Verifying Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)This article proposes a method for verifying deterministic forecasts of rare, extreme events defined by exceedance above a high threshold. A probability model for the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, and ... -
Long-Range Prediction of the Shipping Season in Hudson Bay: A Statistical Approach
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Despite recent reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and the associated increase in both the recreational and commercial use of ice-infested waters, long-range prediction of operationally relevant sea ice parameters is an ... -
Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid ... -
Use of a Rain Gauge Network to Infer the Influence of Environmental Factors on the Propagation of Quasi-Linear Convective Systems in West Africa
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The West African squall line is a key quasi-linear storm system that brings much of the precipitation observed in the data-poor Sudanian climate zone. Squall lines propagate at a wide range of speeds and headings, but the ... -
Discrimination of Mesoscale Convective System Environments Using Sounding Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The prediction of the strength of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a major concern to operational meteorologists and the public. To address this forecast problem, this study examines meteorological variables derived ... -
A Note On the Maximum Peirce Skill Score
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Binary classifiers are obtained from a continuous predictor using a threshold to dichotomize the predictor value into event occurrence and nonoccurrence classes. A contingency table is associated with each threshold, and ... -
A Five-Year Climatology of Elevated Severe Convective Storms in the United States East of the Rocky Mountains
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A 5-yr climatology of elevated severe convective storms was constructed for 1983?87 east of the Rocky Mountains. Potential cases were selected by finding severe storm reports on the cold side of surface fronts. Of the 1826 ... -
Data Mining Numerical Model Output for Single-Station Cloud-Ceiling Forecast Algorithms
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Accurate cloud-ceiling-height forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data are useful for aviation and other interests where low cloud ceilings have an impact on operations. A demonstration of the ... -
False Alarms and Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The false alarm rate (FAR) measures the fraction of forecasted events that did not occur, and it remains one of the key metrics for verifying National Weather Service (NWS) weather warnings. The national FAR for tornado ...