Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1541-1560 of 3043
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Operational Forecasting of Wind-Generated Waves by Hurricane Isabel at NCEP
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The accuracy of the operational wave models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for sea states generated by Hurricane Isabel is assessed. The western North Atlantic (WNA) and the North Atlantic ... -
The Modeling of Trapped-Fetch Waves with Tropical Cyclones—A Desktop Operational Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The authors? development of an underlying theory of trapped-fetch waves with tropical cyclones was presented in an earlier paper. Based on this work a simple, desktop Lagrangian-based trapped-fetch wave model was developed. ... -
A Climatology of Snow-to-Liquid Ratio for the Contiguous United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A 30-yr climatology of the snow-to-liquid-equivalent ratio (SLR) using the National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Summary of the Day (COOP) data is presented. Descriptive statistics are presented for 96 NWS county ... -
Where Is the Real Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Maximum in North America?
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A local maximum in cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash density over northwestern Mexico as measured by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network is examined in detail. Corrections are derived for the relative detection ... -
A Unique Satellite Perspective of the 13–14 January 2004 Record Cold Outbreak in the Northeast
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A cold, dry arctic air mass occupied southeastern Canada and the northeastern United States on 13?14 January 2004. This air mass was quite dry?total column precipitable water values at Pickle Lake, Ontario, Canada, and The ... -
Real Front or Baroclinic Trough?
(American Meteorological Society, 2005) -
Aspects of Effective Mesoscale, Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)This study developed and evaluated a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system with the goal of producing useful, mesoscale forecast probability (FP). Real-time, 0?48-h SREF predictions were produced and analyzed for ... -
A Bayesian Quantitative Precipitation Nowcast Scheme
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Very short-period quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) or nowcast schemes provide deterministic output that fails to convey explicit measures of the uncertainty in the forecast. Presented here is a forecast methodology ... -
New WSR-88D Volume Coverage Pattern 12: Results of Field Tests
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)For the first time since the installation of the national network of Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D), a new scanning strategy?Volume Coverage Pattern 12 (VCP 12)?has been added to the suite of scanning ... -
The Theory of Trapped-Fetch Waves with Tropical Cyclones—An Operational Perspective
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The majority of high wave events and almost all cases of extreme or phenomenal wave growth are the result of a high degree of synchronicity between moving storms and the waves that they generate. This wave containment or ... -
Local Adjustment of the Background Error Correlation for Surface Analyses over Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The terrain between grid points is used to modify locally the background error correlation matrix in an objective analysis system. This modification helps to reduce the influence across mountain barriers of corrections to ... -
A Four-Season Impact Study of Rawinsonde, GOES, and POES Data in the Eta Data Assimilation System. Part I: The Total Contribution
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The impact of in situ rawinsonde (raob) data, remotely sensed Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) data routinely used in NCEP?s Eta Data ... -
A Heuristic Method for Time Disaggregation of Seasonal Climate Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)To be immediately useful in practical applications that employ daily weather generators, seasonal climate forecasts issued for overlapping 3-month periods need to be disaggregated into a sequence of 1-month forecasts. ... -
Effect of TC–Trough Interaction on the Intensity Change of Two Typhoons
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Using large-scale analyses, the effect of tropical cyclone?trough interaction on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is readdressed by studying the evolution of upper-level eddy flux convergence (EFC) of angular momentum ... -
An Introduction to the Near–Real–Time QuikSCAT Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite carries the SeaWinds instrument, the first satellite-borne scanning radar scatterometer. QuikSCAT, which was launched on 19 June 1999, is designed to provide accurate ocean ... -
Probabilistic Forecasting of (Severe) Thunderstorms in the Netherlands Using Model Output Statistics
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The derivation and verification of logistic regression equations for the (conditional) probability of (severe) thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October) in the Netherlands is described. For 12 ... -
A Four-Season Impact Study of Rawinsonde, GOES, and POES Data in the Eta Data Assimilation System. Part II: Contribution of the Components
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The impact of in situ rawinsonde observations (raob), remotely sensed Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) observations routinely used in ... -
An Empirical Blowing Snow Forecast Technique for the Canadian Arctic and the Prairie Provinces
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Blowing snow has a major impact on transportation and public safety. The goal of this study is to provide an operational technique for forecasting high-impact blowing snow on the Canadian arctic and the Prairie provinces ... -
Operational Consensus Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The objective consensus forecasting (OCF) system is an automated operational forecasting system that adapts to underlying numerical model upgrades within 30 days and generally outperforms direct model output (DMO) and model ... -
A Process-Oriented Methodology Toward Understanding the Organization of an Extensive Mesoscale Snowband: A Diagnostic Case Study of 4–5 December 1999
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A case study of a long, narrow band of heavy snowfall is presented that illustrates those processes that force and focus the precipitation in a unique linear fashion. System-relative flow on isentropic surfaces shows how ...