Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1521-1540 of 3043
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Warm Season Lightning Distributions over the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Their Relation to Synoptic-Scale and Mesoscale Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Cloud-to-ground lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network are used to create a warm season (May?September) lightning climatology for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast for the 14-yr period 1989?2002. Each ... -
An Objective Climatology of Carolina Coastal Fronts
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)This study describes a simple objective method to identify cases of coastal frontogenesis offshore of the Carolinas and to characterize the sensible weather associated with frontal passage at measurement sites near the ... -
The Heavy Rain Event of 29 October 2000 in Hana, Maui
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)On 29 October 2000, the Hana region of Maui received 700 mm of rain in 7 h. Radar analyses revealed that the storm consisted of seven cells that were initiated along the southeast slope of Haleakala volcano. One of these ... -
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five ... -
Computing Divergence from a Surface Network: Comparison of the Triangle and Pentagon Methods
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Two methods for creating gridded fields of divergence from irregularly spaced wind observations are evaluated by sampling analytic fields of cyclones and anticyclones of varying wavelengths using a surface network. For the ... -
NWP Grid Editing at the Met Office
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Over the past few years the way in which central forecast guidance is disseminated by forecasters in the Met Office headquarters has been changing, with an increasing reliance on modification of variables? output from NWP ... -
Model Forecast Improvements with Decreased Horizontal Grid Spacing over Finescale Intermountain Orography during the 2002 Olympic Winter Games
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Forecasts produced for the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (23 January?25 March 2002) by a multiply nested version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research ... -
An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The current version of the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) used operationally at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to provide 12-hourly tropical cyclone intensity guidance through day 5 is ... -
Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Modifications to the Atlantic and east Pacific versions of the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for each year from 1997 to 2003 are described. Major changes include the addition of a ... -
A Reassessment of the Percentage of Tornadic Mesocyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A large set of data collected by numerous Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) units around the United States was analyzed to reassess the percentage of tornadic mesocyclones. Out of the 5322 individual ... -
Climatological Estimates of Daily Local Nontornadic Severe Thunderstorm Probability for the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The probability of nontornadic severe weather event reports near any location in the United States for any day of the year has been estimated. Gaussian smoothers in space and time have been applied to the observed record ... -
The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part II: Validation
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Satellite analysts at the Satellite Services Division (SSD) of the National Environmental, Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) routinely generate 24-h rainfall potential for all tropical systems that are ... -
The Use of Moisture Flux Convergence in Forecasting Convective Initiation: Historical and Operational Perspectives
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Moisture flux convergence (MFC) is a term in the conservation of water vapor equation and was first calculated in the 1950s and 1960s as a vertically integrated quantity to predict rainfall associated with synoptic-scale ... -
The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part I: Description and Examples
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Inland flooding caused by heavy rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones is a significant threat to life and property. The tropical rainfall potential (TRaP) technique, which couples satellite estimates of rain rate in ... -
WSR-88D Radar, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The impact of the installation of Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars in the 1990s on the quality of tornado warnings and occurrence of tornado casualties is examined. This analysis employs a dataset ... -
Numerical Simulations of Sea-Breeze Circulations over Northwest Hawaii
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Sea-breeze cases during 23?28 June 1978 over northwest Hawaii are simulated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) coupled with an advanced Land Surface Model (LSM) ... -
An Operational System for Predicting Hurricane-Generated Wind Waves in the North Atlantic Ocean
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A new wind?wave prediction model, referred to as the North Atlantic hurricane (NAH) wave model, has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to produce forecasts of hurricane-generated ... -
Linking the Eta Model with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to Build a National Air Quality Forecasting System
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)NOAA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have developed a national air quality forecasting (AQF) system that is based on numerical models for meteorology, emissions, and chemistry. The AQF system generates ... -
Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from Two Limited-Area Models over Italy and Comparison with ECMWF Forecasts Using a Resampling Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)This paper presents the first systematic limited area model (LAM) precipitation verification work over Italy. A resampling technique was used to provide skill score results along with confidence intervals. Two years of ... -
Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar in Finescale Surface Analysis of Synoptic-Scale Fronts at Sea
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The viability of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) as a tool for finescale marine meteorological surface analyses of synoptic-scale fronts is demonstrated. In particular, it is shown that SAR can reveal the presence of, and ...