Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1501-1520 of 3043
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A Single-Station Approach to Model Output Statistics Temperature Forecast Error Assessment
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Error characteristics of model output statistics (MOS) temperature forecasts are calculated for over 200 locations around the continental United States. The forecasts are verified on a station-by-station basis for the year ... -
A Sensitivity Study of Hodograph-Based Methods for Estimating Supercell Motion
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Four supercell motion forecast algorithms are investigated with respect to their hodograph-analysis parameters. Another method derived from the data presented herein, the so-called offset method, is used to develop a ... -
Ground Fog Detection from Space Based on MODIS Daytime Data—A Feasibility Study
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The distinction made by satellite data between ground fog and low stratus is still an open problem. A proper detection scheme would need to make a determination between low stratus thickness and top height. Based on this ... -
Improving Tropical Cyclogenesis Statistical Model Forecasts through the Application of a Neural Network Classifier
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A binary neural network classifier is evaluated against linear discriminant analysis within the framework of a statistical model for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis (TCG). A dataset consisting of potential developing ... -
Validation of the Coupled NCEP Mesoscale Spectral Model and an Advanced Land Surface Model over the Hawaiian Islands. Part I: Summer Trade Wind Conditions and a Heavy Rainfall Event
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Validations of the 10-km operational Regional Spectral Model (RSM) and the coupled Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) with an advanced land surface model (LSM) forecasts during a 1-month period from 20 May through 20 June 2002 ... -
A Laboratory Study of the Benefits of Including Uncertainty Information in Weather Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Modern operational methods of numerical weather prediction, such as ?ensemble forecasting,? allow assessments of state-dependent predictability to be made. This means that forecast-specific estimates of the forecast standard ... -
The Impact of Different WRF Model Physical Parameterizations and Their Interactions on Warm Season MCS Rainfall
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)In recent years, a mixed-physics ensemble approach has been investigated as a method to better predict mesoscale convective system (MCS) rainfall. For both mixed-physics ensemble design and interpretation, knowledge of the ... -
Evaluations of Global Wave Prediction at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)It is a major challenge to determine whether bias in operational global wave predictions is predominately due to the wave model itself (internal error) or due to errors in wind forcing (an external error). Another challenge ... -
Alternatives to the Chi-Square Test for Evaluating Rank Histograms from Ensemble Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Rank histograms are a commonly used tool for evaluating an ensemble forecasting system?s performance. Because the sample size is finite, the rank histogram is subject to statistical fluctuations, so a goodness-of-fit (GOF) ... -
The 4 June 1999 Derecho Event: A Particularly Difficult Challenge for Numerical Weather Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Warm season convective system rainfall forecasts remain a particularly difficult forecast challenge. For these events, it is possible that ensemble forecasts would provide helpful information unavailable in a single ... -
Development of Convective Systems over Baja California during Tropical Cyclone Linda (2003)
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Characteristics of the life cycle and motion of convective systems that occurred over the Baja California Peninsula were determined from a case study in September of 2003. This note applies data from satellite imagery, ... -
The Joint Polarization Experiment: Polarimetric Radar in Forecasting and Warning Decision Making
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)To test the utility and added value of polarimetric radar products in an operational environment, data from the Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) were delivered to the ... -
The Improved AMSU Rain-Rate Algorithm and Its Evaluation for a Cool Season Event in the Western United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Rain-rate retrievals from passive microwave sensors are useful for a number of applications related to weather forecasting. For example, in the United States, such estimates are useful for offshore rainfall systems approaching ... -
Evaluation of Surface Sensible Weather Forecasts by the WRF and the Eta Models over the Western United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)An evaluation of the surface sensible weather forecasts using high-density observations provided by the MesoWest cooperative networks illustrates the performance characteristics of the Cooperative Institute for Regional ... -
A Multiscale Examination of the 31 May 1998 Mechanicville, New York, Tornado
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)On 31 May 1998, an F3 tornado struck Mechanicville, New York, injuring 68 people and causing $71 million in damage. The tornado was part of a widespread, severe weather outbreak across the northeast United States. The ... -
Improved Site-Specific Numerical Prediction of Fog and Low Clouds: A Feasibility Study
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Accurate short-term forecasts of low ceiling and visibility are vital to air traffic operation, in order to maximize the use of an airport. The research presented here uses specific local observations and a detailed numerical ... -
Radar Z–RRelationship for Summer Monsoon Storms in Arizona
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Radar-based estimates of rainfall rates and accumulations are one of the principal tools used by the National Weather Service (NWS) to identify areas of extreme precipitation that could lead to flooding. Radar-based rainfall ... -
Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Production in Strongly Forced, Low-Instability Convective Lines Associated with Damaging Wind
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)During 9?11 November 1998 and 9?10 March 2002, two similar convective lines moved across the central and eastern United States. Both convective lines initiated over the southern plains along strong surface-based cold fronts ... -
Comments on “Discussion of Verification Concepts in Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science”
(American Meteorological Society, 2005) -
Improvements in Typhoon Forecasts with Assimilated GPS Occultation Refractivity
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) is utilized to investigate ...