Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1481-1500 of 3043
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The Role of GOES Satellite Imagery in Tracking Low-Level Moisture
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)This note provides examples of how geostationary satellite data can be applied to augment other data sources in tracking warm, moist air masses as they move northward from the Gulf of Mexico. These so-called returning air ... -
A Novel Approach to Marine Wind Speed Assessment Using Synthetic Aperture Radar
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)This paper describes a product that allows one to assess the lower and upper bounds on synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-based marine wind speed. The SAR-based wind speed fields of the current research are generated using ... -
A Forecast Strategy for Anticipating Cold Season Mesoscale Band Formation within Eastern U.S. Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)An ingredients-based, time- and scale-dependent forecast strategy for anticipating cold season mesoscale band formation within eastern U.S. cyclones is presented. This strategy draws on emerging conceptual models of mesoscale ... -
The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of ... -
Bowing Convective Systems in a Popular Operational Model: Are They for Real?
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Bowing, propagating precipitation features that sometimes appear in NCEP's North American Mesoscale model (NAM; formerly called the Eta Model) forecasts are examined. These features are shown to be associated with an unusual ... -
EDITORIAL
(American Meteorological Society, 2007) -
Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model were evaluated during the 2004 Storm Prediction Center?National Severe Storms Laboratory Spring Program in a simulated severe weather ... -
Improving Snowfall Forecasting by Accounting for the Climatological Variability of Snow Density
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Accurately forecasting snowfall is a challenge. In particular, one poorly understood component of snowfall forecasting is determining the snow ratio. The snow ratio is the ratio of snowfall to liquid equivalent and is ... -
Confidence Interval Estimation for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) Using Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF)
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) at the NCEP has produced a suite of deterministic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for over 40 yr. While the operational forecasts have proven to be useful in their ... -
Mountain Wave–Induced Polar Stratospheric Cloud Forecasts for Aircraft Science Flights during SOLVE/THESEO 2000
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)The results of a multimodel forecasting effort to predict mountain wave?induced polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) for airborne science during the third Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III) Ozone Loss and ... -
CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2005) -
The Use of Sounding-Derived Indices for a Neural Network Short-Term Thunderstorm Forecast
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)In this paper several indices derived from atmospheric sounding data are used to develop a short-term thunderstorm forecast tool. The Udine (Italy) sounding (WMO code 16044, taken every 6 h, hereafter 6 h) is used to ... -
An Odds Ratio Parameterization for ROC Diagram and Skill Score Indices
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagram is often used to assess the performance of a classification system, like the categorical forecast of an event occurrence. Categorical forecasting can be obtained by ... -
Characteristics of U.S. Extreme Rain Events during 1999–2003
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)This study examines the characteristics of a large number of extreme rain events over the eastern two-thirds of the United States. Over a 5-yr period, 184 events are identified where the 24-h precipitation total at one or ... -
The Future of Peer Review?
(American Meteorological Society, 2005) -
On the Classification of Vertical Wind Shear as Directional Shear versus Speed Shear
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Vertical wind shear is commonly classified as ?directional? or ?speed? shear. In this note, these classifications are reviewed and their relevance discussed with respect to the dynamics of convective storms. In the absence ... -
Performance of Long-Term Integrations of the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model Using the Spectral Boundary Coupling Method
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)The spectral boundary coupling (SBC) method, which is an approach used to couple a limited-area model with a large-scale model, was introduced into a nonhydrostatic model. To investigate whether the SBC method works well ... -
Validation of the Coupled NCEP Mesoscale Spectral Model and an Advanced Land Surface Model over the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: A High Wind Event
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)A high wind event (14?15 February 2001) over the Hawaiian Islands associated with a cold front is simulated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) coupled with an ... -
Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Compared to Operational, Consensus, and Weighted Model Output Statistics
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Model output statistics (MOS) guidance has been the central model postprocessing approach used by the National Weather Service since the 1970s. A recent advancement in the use of MOS is the application of ?consensus? MOS ... -
Warm Season Lightning Probability Prediction for Canada and the Northern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2005)Statistical models valid May?September were developed to predict the probability of lightning in 3-h intervals using observations from the North American Lightning Detection Network and predictors derived from Global ...