Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1461-1480 of 3043
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Severe Convective Wind Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Nontornadic thunderstorm winds from long-lived, widespread convective windstorms can have a tremendous impact on human lives and property. To examine environments that support damaging wind producing convection, sounding ... -
Developing Tools for Nowcasting Storm Severity
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)A conceptual model is presented for developing a new tool for nowcasting severe thunderstorms using existing operational data. Selected output from two operational, automated, weather detection and forecasting systems have ... -
An Integrated Approach to Mid- and Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)An automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level turbulence that affects aircraft is described. This procedure, termed the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system, uses output from numerical weather prediction model ... -
The Use of Global and Mesoscale Meteorological Model Data to Predict the Transport and Dispersion of Tracer Plumes over Washington, D.C.
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)The data from a yearlong tracer dispersion experiment over Washington, D.C., in 1984 were used to evaluate Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) dispersion model calculations using coarse global ... -
Buyer Beware: Some Words of Caution on the Use of Severe Wind Reports in Postevent Assessment and Research
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Postevent damage surveys conducted during the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment demonstrate that the severe thunderstorm wind reports in Storm Data served as a poor characterization of the actual scope ... -
Detection of Storm Damage Tracks with EOS Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (pathlength and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. ... -
A Method for Eliciting, Preserving, and Sharing the Knowledge of Forecasters
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)As in many domains of modern work, a concern in weather forecasting is the loss of expertise, due either to reassignment or retirement. This note reports upon a project that demonstrates a procedure that can be used to ... -
Forecasting Tornadic Thunderstorm Potential in Alberta Using Environmental Sounding Data. Part I: Wind Shear and Buoyancy
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)This study investigates, for Alberta, Canada, whether observed sounding parameters such as wind shear and buoyant energy can be used to help distinguish between thunderstorms with significant (F2?F5) tornadoes, thunderstorms ... -
Forecasting Tornadic Thunderstorm Potential in Alberta Using Environmental Sounding Data. Part II: Helicity, Precipitable Water, and Storm Convergence
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Sounding parameters are examined to determine whether they can help distinguish between Alberta, Canada, severe thunderstorms that spawn significant tornadoes (F2?F4), weak tornadoes (F0?F1), or nontornadic severe storms ... -
Comparison of Hindcasts Anticipating the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Advances in hurricane climate science allow forecasts of seasonal landfall activity to be made. The authors begin with a review of the forecast methods available in the literature. They then reformulate the methods using ... -
Spatial Forecasts of Maximum Hail Size Using Prognostic Model Soundings and HAILCAST
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Forecasting the occurrence of hail and the maximum hail size is a challenging problem. This paper investigates the feasibility of producing maps of the forecast maximum hail size over the Canadian prairies using 12-h ... -
The Use of a Modified Ebert–McBride Technique to Evaluate Mesoscale Model QPF as a Function of Convective System Morphology during IHOP 2002
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)The Ebert?McBride technique (EMT) is an entity-oriented method useful for quantitative precipitation verification. The EMT was modified to optimize its ability to identify contiguous rain areas (CRAs) during the 2002 ... -
Value of Human-Generated Perturbations in Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Weather
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)During the spring of 2003, the Storm Prediction Center, in partnership with the National Severe Storms Laboratory, conducted an experiment to explore the value of having operational severe weather forecasters involved in ... -
Insurer Stock Price Responses to Hurricane Floyd: An Event Study Analysis Using Storm Characteristics
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)This research uses an event study methodology to examine the effect of Hurricane Floyd and the associated scientific and media releases on the market value of insurance firms. The research is unique in that information ... -
The Role of Sublimational Cooling in a Late-Season Midwestern Snow Event
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Analysis is provided of a surprise late-season snow event over eastern Missouri and western Illinois. While snow totals failed to exceed 15 cm (6 in.) at any single location, the system was noteworthy because of the poor ... -
Evolution of the U.S. Tornado Database: 1954–2003
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)Over the last 50 yr, the number of tornadoes reported in the United States has doubled from about 600 per year in the 1950s to around 1200 in the 2000s. This doubling is likely not related to meteorological causes alone. ... -
Mesoscale Predictability of an Extreme Warm-Season Precipitation Event
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)A mesoscale model is used to investigate the mesoscale predictability of an extreme precipitation event over central Texas on 29 June 2002 that lasted through 7 July 2002. Both the intrinsic and practical aspects of ... -
Subtropical Cyclogenesis over the Central North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)The occurrence of subtropical cyclones over the central North Pacific Ocean has a significant impact on Hawaii?s weather and climate. In this study, 70 upper-level lows that formed during the period 1980?2002 are documented. ... -
An Observational Study of Mesoscale Convective Systems with Heavy Rainfall over the Korean Peninsula
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)A heavy rainfall event induced by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) occurred over the middle Korean Peninsula from 25 to 27 July 1996. This heavy rainfall caused a large loss of life and property damage as a result of ... -
Bayesian Approach to Decision Making Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)The economic value of ensemble-based weather or climate forecasts is generally assessed by taking the ensembles at ?face value.? That is, the forecast probability is estimated as the relative frequency of occurrence of an ...