Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1341-1360 of 3043
-
Multiscale Evaluation of Extreme Rainfall Event Predictions Using Severity Diagrams
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)bservations and simulations of rainfall events are usually compared by analyzing (i) the total rainfall depth produced by the event and (ii) the location of the rainfall maximum. A different approach is proposed here that ... -
Convective Storm Structures and Ambient Conditions Associated with Severe Weather over the Northeast United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his study documents the convective storm structures and ambient conditions associated with severe storms (wind, hail, and tornado) over the northeastern United States for two warm seasons (May?August), including 2007 and ... -
Spatial Forecast Verification: Baddeley’s Delta Metric Applied to the ICP Test Cases
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)mathematical displacement metric, Baddeley?s ?, is examined for verifying gridded forecasts against gridded observations using the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project test cases. Results are ... -
New Probabilistic Forecast Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he National Hurricane Center currently employs a skillful probabilistic rapid intensification index (RII) based on linear discriminant analysis of the environmental and satellite-derived features from the Statistical ... -
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Infrared Image Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his paper describes results from a near-real-time objective technique for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones from satellite infrared imagery in the North Atlantic Ocean basin. The technique quantifies the level ... -
Heavy Precipitation at the Alpine South Side and Saharan Dust over Central Europe: A Predictability Study Using TIGGE
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)round 26 May 2008 a pronounced potential vorticity (PV) streamer penetrated from the North Atlantic into the western Mediterranean Sea followed by widespread dust mobilization over the Maghreb region of northwest Africa ... -
Mesoscale Surface Analysis System for the Australian Domain: Design Issues, Development Status, and System Validation
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n operational surface analysis system for the continent of Australia is presented. The system is specifically designed to mitigate problems that arise when analyzing surface data with a highly inhomogeneous distribution. ... -
A 3DVAR-Based Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Predictions
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)combined tropical cyclone dynamic initialization?three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (TCDI?3DVAR) is proposed. The specific procedure for the new initialization scheme is described as follows. First, a ... -
On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part I: Model Prediction and Structural Changes
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n this study, a 72-h cloud-permitting numerical prediction of Hurricane Wilma (2005), covering its initial 18-h spinup, an 18-h rapid intensification (RI), and the subsequent 36-h weakening stage, is performed using the ... -
Reply
(American Meteorological Society, 2011) -
Unexpected High Winds in Northern New Jersey: A Downslope Windstorm in Modest Topography
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his study presents the first evidence for the occurrence of a downslope windstorm in New Jersey. During the early morning hours of 4 January 2009, an unanticipated strong wind event was observed. Despite a zone forecast ... -
Application of the WRF Hybrid ETKF–3DVAR Data Assimilation System for Hurricane Track Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF)?three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) was studied for the forecasts of the tracks of ... -
Applications of Full Spatial Resolution Space-Based Advanced Infrared Soundings in the Preconvection Environment
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)dvanced infrared (IR) sounders such as the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) provide atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles with high vertical resolution and ... -
An Examination of Model Track Forecast Errors for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)ources of dynamical model track error for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico are examined. Deterministic and ensemble model output are compared against National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global ... -
Verification of a Multimodel Storm Surge Ensemble around New York City and Long Island for the Cool Season
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)hree real-time storm surge forecasting systems [the eight-member Stony Brook ensemble (SBSS), the Stevens Institute of Technology?s New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (SIT-NYHOPS), and the NOAA Extratropical ... -
Performance of a Dynamic Initialization Scheme in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC)
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)dynamic initialization scheme for tropical cyclone structure and intensity in numerical prediction systems is described and tested. The procedure involves the removal of the analyzed vortex and, then, insertion of a new ... -
Probabilistic Forecast Guidance for Severe Thunderstorms Based on the Identification of Extreme Phenomena in Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)ith the advent of convection-allowing NWP models (CAMs) comes the potential for new forms of forecast guidance. While CAMs lack the required resolution to simulate many severe phenomena associated with convection (e.g., ... -
Multiscale Processes Leading to Supercells in the Landfalling Outer Rainbands of Hurricane Katrina (2005)
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)hallow supercells are frequently observed within the outer rainbands?both onshore and offshore?of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Such supercells can produce tornadoes along the coast even when the center of the parent ... -
A Fuzzy Logic Method for Lightning Prediction Using Thermodynamic and Kinematic Parameters from Radio Sounding Observations in South Korea
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)ightning is one of the most troubling weather phenomena for weather forecasters at space centers. In this study, proximity sounding and lightning data were used to evaluate the utility of thermodynamic and kinematic ... -
Modeling PM10 Originating from Dust Intrusions in the Southern Iberian Peninsula Using HYSPLIT
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectories (HYSPLIT) model has been applied to calculate the spatial and temporal distributions of dust originating from North Africa. The model has been configured to ...