Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1321-1340 of 3043
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Diagnosing the Sensitivity of Binary Image Measures to Bias, Location, and Event Frequency within a Forecast Verification Framework
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)hile the use of binary distance measures has a substantial history in the field of image processing, these techniques have only recently been applied in the area of forecast verification. Designed to quantify the distance ... -
Radar Nowcasting of Total Lightning over the Kennedy Space Center
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)long-term radar dataset over Melbourne, Florida, was matched with three-dimensional lightning data to optimize radar-derived predictors of total lightning over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Four years (2006?09) of summer ... -
The Influence of Airborne Doppler Radar Data Quality on Numerical Simulations of a Tropical Cyclone
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he impact of airborne Doppler radar data assimilation on improving numerical simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) has been well recognized. However, the influence of radar data quality on the numerical simulation of ... -
Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filter–Based Forecasts to Traditional Ensemble and Deterministic Forecasts for a Case Study of Banded Snow
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique is compared to other modeling approaches for a case study of banded snow. The forecasts include a 12- and 3-km grid-spaced deterministic forecast (D12 and D3), a 12-km 30-member ... -
The Meteorological Global Model GLOBO at the ISAC-CNR of Italy Assessment of 1.5 Yr of Experimental Use for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)ince August 2009, the GLOBO atmospheric general circulation model has been running experimentally at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) of the National Council of Research of Italy. GLOBO is derived ... -
Updating Short-Term Probabilistic Weather Forecasts of Continuous Variables Using Recent Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)statistical postprocessing method for improving probabilistic forecasts of continuous weather variables, given recent observations, is presented. The method updates an existing probabilistic forecast by incorporating ... -
Organization of Flash-Flood-Producing Precipitation in the Northeast United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)eavy precipitation and flash flooding have been extensively studied in the central United States, but less so in the Northeast. This study examines 187 warm-season flash flood events identified in Storm Data to better ... -
Springtime Fire Weather in Tasmania, Australia: Two Case Studies
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)number of severe springtime fire weather events have occurred in Tasmania, Australia, in recent years. Two such events are examined here in some detail, in an attempt to understand the mechanisms involved in the events. ... -
A Review of Three Significant Wake Lows over Alabama and Georgia
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he kinematics and thermodynamics of wake lows have been extensively examined in the literature. However, there has been relatively little focus on the widespread, sometimes very strong winds associated with wake lows. Some ... -
Supercells in Environments with Atypical Hodographs
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n unusual severe weather event with supercell thunderstorms developed across portions of northern Arizona in the midst of the warm-season North American monsoon?a regime characteristically dominated by a subtropical ... -
Simple Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Structure via Pressure Gradients
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n 1980 the Holland tropical cyclone (TC) wind profile model was introduced. This simple model was originally intended to estimate the wind profile based on limited surface pressure information alone. For this reason and ... -
The Potential for Seasonal Forecasting of Winter Wave Heights in the Northern North Sea
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he height of waves at North Sea oil and gas installations is an important factor governing the degree to which operational activities may be undertaken at those facilities. A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation ... -
Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with ... -
Precipitation Forecasting Using Doppler Radar Data, a Cloud Model with Adjoint, and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Real Case Studies during SoWMEX in Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) capability of the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) is investigated in the Taiwan area, where the complex topography and surrounding oceans pose great challenges ... -
A Comprehensive Assessment of CFS Seasonal Forecasts over the Tropics
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he 15-member ensemble hindcasts performed with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFS) for the period 1981?2005, as well as real-time forecasts for the period 2006?09, are assessed ... -
Estimation of Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)mbiguity is uncertainty in the prediction of forecast uncertainty, or in the forecast probability of a specific event, associated with random error in an ensemble forecast probability density function. In ensemble forecasting ... -
Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)everal tropical cyclone forecasting centers issue uncertainty information with regard to their official track forecasts, generally using the climatological distribution of position error. However, such methods are not able ... -
Bias Correction for Global Ensemble Forecast
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he main task of this study is to introduce a statistical postprocessing algorithm to reduce the bias in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) ensemble forecasts ... -
A Climatology and Comparison of Parameters for Significant Tornado Events in the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)sample of 448 significant tornado events was collected, representing a population of 1072 individual tornadoes across the contiguous United States from 2000 to 2008. Classification of convective mode was assessed from radar ... -
Wavelet Support Vector Machines for Forecasting Precipitation in Tropical Cyclones: Comparisons with GSVM, Regression, and MM5
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his study presents two support vector machine (SVM) based models for forecasting hourly precipitation during tropical cyclone (typhoon) events. The two SVM-based models are the traditional Gaussian kernel SVMs (GSVMs) and ...