Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1301-1320 of 3043
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Two-Dimensional Retrieval of Typhoon Tracks from an Ensemble of Multimodel Outputs
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n this study a method of retrieving optimum information of typhoon tracks in a multimodel ensemble of forecasts is explored. By treating the latitudes and longitudes of typhoon centers as components of two-dimensional track ... -
Synoptic-Scale Analysis of Freezing Rain Events in Montreal, Quebec, Canada
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)reezing rain is a major environmental hazard that is especially common along the St. Lawrence River valley (SLRV) in southern Quebec, Canada. For large cities such as Montreal, severe events can have a devastating effect ... -
Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts of 2-m Temperature over Australia
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his paper describes an extension of an operational consensus forecasting (OCF) scheme from site forecasts to gridded forecasts. OCF is a multimodel consensus scheme including bias correction and weighting. Bias correction ... -
Comparison between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)tudies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. ... -
Assimilation of F-16 Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder Data in the NCEP Global Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-16 satellite is the first conically scanning sounding instrument that provides information on atmospheric ... -
Observations of Mergers between Squall Lines and Isolated Supercell Thunderstorms
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)set of 21 cases in which an isolated supercell merged with a squall line were identified and investigated using analyses from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, archived data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler ... -
An Analysis of NCEP Tropical Cyclone Vitals and Potential Effects on Forecasting Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)his study analyzes the Tropical Cyclone Vitals Database (TCVitals), which contains cyclone location, intensity, and structure information, generated in real time by forecasters. These data are used to initialize cyclones ... -
Evolution and Maintenance of the 22–23 June 2003 Nocturnal Convection during BAMEX
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n 22?23 June 2003 a broad region of convection, comprising a squall line and discrete supercells, evolved throughout the evening and nighttime hours. These storms were studied by analyzing both observations and idealized ... -
Applications of a Velocity Dealiasing Scheme to Data from the China New Generation Weather Radar System (CINRAD)
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n improved velocity dealiasing algorithm is developed as an extension of the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) dealiasing algorithm. The algorithm described in this paper is evaluated on selected China Next Generation ... -
Can Lagrangian Extrapolation of Radar Fields Be Used for Precipitation Nowcasting over Complex Alpine Orography?
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n this study, a Lagrangian radar echo extrapolation scheme (MAPLE) was tested for use in very short-term forecasting of precipitation over a complex orographic region. The high-resolution forecasts from MAPLE for lead times ... -
Toward Improving High-Resolution Numerical Hurricane Forecasting: Influence of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution, Initialization, and Physics
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)his paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87 cases of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the 2005, 2007, and 2009 hurricane ... -
Large-Scale Characteristics and Probability of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets are employed to examine the large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying western North ... -
Scientific Prerequisites to Comprehension of the Tropical Cyclone Forecast: Intensity, Track, and Size
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he communication by forecasters of tropical cyclone (TC) descriptions and forecasts to user communities necessarily involves the transmission of information based in science to different classes of users composed primarily ... -
Diagnosing Snowband Predictability Using a Multimodel Ensemble System
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he forecast uncertainty of mesoscale snowband formation and evolution is compared using predictions from a 16-member multimodel ensemble at 12-km grid spacing for the 25 December 2002, 12 February 2006, and 14 February ... -
Tropical Cyclone Formation in Environments with Cool SST and High Wind Shear over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ropical cyclones with nontropical characteristics are being identified more frequently over the North Atlantic Ocean in recent years. These systems present forecasting challenges because of their hybrid structure. The ... -
Assimilation of Tropical Cyclone Advisory Minimum Sea Level Pressure in the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he assimilation of official advisory minimum sea level pressure observations has been developed and tested in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) to address ... -
Evaluating Satellite-Based Cloud Persistence and Displacement Nowcasting Techniques over Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites allows roughly for the same region of Earth to be sampled twice in a nowcasting time frame. Using the MODIS cloud mask ... -
Impact of Assimilating Microwave Radiances with a Limited-Area Ensemble Data Assimilation System on Forecasts of Typhoon Morakot
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)wo parallel experiments were designed to evaluate whether assimilating microwave radiances with a cyclic, limited-area ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) could improve track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts ... -
Verification of Operational Analyses Using an Extremely High-Density Surface Station Network
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)perational analyses of 2-m temperature, 2-m humidity, and 10-m wind speed are verified independently against observations obtained from the WegenerNet, an extremely high-density, grid-type surface station network in ... -
Development of Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction: Application to Satellite-Observed Surface Evaporation and Rain Rate (STIPER)
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)statistical?dynamical model has been used for operational guidance for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction. In this study, several multiple linear regression models and neural network (NN) models are developed for ...