Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1281-1300 of 3043
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Current Capability of Operational Numerical Models in Predicting Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)orecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from six operational models (three global models and three regional models) during 2010 and 2011 are assessed to study the current capability of model guidance in the western ... -
Generating and Calibrating Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the High-Resolution NWP Model COSMO-DE
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)tatistical postprocessing is an integral part of an ensemble prediction system. This study compares methods used to derive probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the high-resolution version of the ... -
Improving the Prediction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: New Approaches
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ast Asian summer monsoon (EASM) prediction is difficult because of the summer monsoon?s weak and unstable linkage with El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interdecadal variability and its complicated association with ... -
Verification of RUC 0–1-h Forecasts and SPC Mesoscale Analyses Using VORTEX2 Soundings
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)his study uses radiosonde observations obtained during the second phase of the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) to verify base-state variables and severe-weather-related parameters ... -
Vertical Variations of Boundary Layer Potential Buoyancy in Tornadic and Nontornadic Near-Storm Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)espite great strides in understanding the tornadic near-storm environment (NSE), at times it remains difficult to determine why some storms produce significant tornadoes, while others produce none, given similar pretornadic ... -
Western North Pacific Monsoon Depression Formation
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)elatively few studies have been carried out as to the conditions leading to the formation of monsoon depressions in the western North Pacific. Two monsoon depression formations during July 2007 were analyzed using ECMWF ... -
Assimilation of High-Resolution Mode-S Wind and Temperature Observations in a Regional NWP Model for Nowcasting Applications
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)n this paper the beneficial impacts of high-resolution (in space and time) wind and temperature observations from aircraft on very short-range numerical weather forecasting are presented. The observations are retrieved ... -
Convective Squalls over the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he Congo Basin and the adjacent equatorial eastern Atlantic are among the most active regions of the world in terms of intense deep moist convection, leading to frequent lightning and severe squalls. Studying the dynamics ... -
Assimilating AIRS Temperature and Mixing Ratio Profiles Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter Approach for Convective-Scale Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ne satellite data product that has received great interest in the numerical weather prediction community is the temperature and mixing ratio profiles derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on board ... -
Impacts of Forecaster Involvement on Convective Storm Initiation and Evolution Nowcasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)forecaster-interactive capability was added to an automated convective storm nowcasting system [Auto-Nowcaster (ANC)] to allow forecasters to enhance the performance of 1-h nowcasts of convective storm initiation and ... -
CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2011) -
Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Information
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ith the growing use of tropical cyclone (TC) best-track information for weather and climate applications, it is important to understand the uncertainties that are contained in the TC position and intensity information. ... -
Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)his analysis examines the predictability of several key forecasting parameters using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) including tropical ... -
A Statistical Downscaling Model for Forecasting Summer Rainfall in China from DEMETER Hindcast Datasets
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)new statistical downscaling (SD) scheme is proposed to predict summertime multisite rainfall measurements in China. The potential predictors are multiple large-scale variables from operational dynamical model output. A key ... -
A Case Study of High-Impact Wet Snowfall in Northwest Germany (25–27 November 2005): Observations, Dynamics, and Forecast Performance
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ccurate numerical weather prediction of intense snowfall events requires the correct representation of dynamical and physical processes on various scales. In this study, a specific event of high-impact wet snowfall is ... -
A Method for Calibrating Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)onvection-allowing models offer forecasters unique insight into convective hazards relative to numerical models using parameterized convection. However, methods to best characterize the uncertainty of guidance derived from ... -
Seasonal Rainfall Prediction Skill over South Africa: One- versus Two-Tiered Forecasting Systems
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)orecast performance by coupled ocean?atmosphere or one-tiered models predicting seasonal rainfall totals over South Africa is compared with forecasts produced by computationally less demanding two-tiered systems where ... -
Sensitivity of 0–12-h Warm-Season Precipitation Forecasts over the Central United States to Model Initialization
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ensitivity of 0?12-h warm-season precipitation forecasts to atmospheric initial conditions, including those from different large-scale model analyses and from rapid cycled (RC) three-dimensional variational data assimilations ... -
Influence of the Lake Erie Overlake Boundary Layer on Deep Convective Storm Evolution
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he influence that the overlake boundary layer has on storm intensity and structure is not well understood. To improve scientists? understanding of the evolution of storms crossing Lake Erie, 111 events during 2001?09 were ... -
Coupling the Town Energy Balance (TEB) Scheme to an Operational Limited-Area NWP Model: Evaluation for a Highly Urbanized Area in Belgium
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he Town Energy Balance (TEB) single-layer scheme is implemented in a numerical weather prediction model running operationally at ~4-km resolution. The primary question addressed is the ability of TEB to function at this ...