Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1261-1280 of 3043
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Application of WRF 3DVAR to Operational Typhoon Prediction in Taiwan: Impact of Outer Loop and Partial Cycling Approaches
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)n this paper, the impact of outer loop and partial cycling with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model?s (WRF) three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR) is evaluated by analyzing 78 forecasts for ... -
An Analysis of Vortices Embedded within a Quasi-Linear Convective System Using X-Band Polarimetric Radar
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)n 2 April 2010, a developing quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) moved rapidly northeastward through central Oklahoma spawning at least three intense, mesoscale vortices. At least two of these vortices caused damage rated ... -
Integrating NWP Forecasts and Observation Data to Improve Nowcasting Accuracy
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)his study addresses the issue of improving nowcasting accuracy by integrating several numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts with observation data. To derive the best algorithms for generating integrated ... -
Estimation of TAMDAR Observational Error and Assimilation Experiments
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) observations are becoming a major data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP) because of the advantages of their high spatiotemporal resolution and humidity ... -
Hail Swaths Observed from Satellite Data and Their Relation to Radar and Surface-Based Observations: A Case Study from Iowa in 2009
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)everal storms produced extensive hail damage over Iowa on 9 August 2009. The hail associated with these supercells was observed with radar data, reported by surface observers, and the resulting hail swaths were identified ... -
Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part III: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)gridded, hourly, three-dimensional environmental mesoanalysis database at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), based on objectively analyzed surface observations blended with the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model-analysis fields ... -
Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part I: Storm Classification and Climatology
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)adar-based convective modes were assigned to a sample of tornadoes and significant severe thunderstorms reported in the contiguous United States (CONUS) during 2003?11. The significant hail (≥2-in. diameter), significant ... -
Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS Tornado Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)sample of 22 901 tornado and significant severe thunderstorm events, filtered on an hourly 40-km grid, was collected for the period 2003?11 across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Convective mode was assigned to each ... -
2010 Western North Pacific Typhoon Season: Seasonal Overview and Forecast Using a Track-Pattern-Based Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ourteen named tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the western North Pacific (WNP) in 2010, representing the lowest count since 1951. Both low activity during the typhoon season (June?October) and quiescence during the pre- ... -
The Tornadic Vortex Signature: An Update
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)tornadic vortex signature (TVS) is a degraded Doppler velocity signature of a tornado that occurs when the core region of a tornado is smaller than the half-power beamwidth of the sampling Doppler radar. Soon after the TVS ... -
A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model ... -
A Case Study of Processes Impacting Precipitation Phase and Intensity during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ccurate forecasting of precipitation phase and intensity was critical information for many of the Olympic venue managers during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Precipitation forecasting was complicated ... -
About the Reliability of Manual Model PV Corrections to Improve Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he National Weather Forecast Centre of Météo-France has developed a tool that corrects the state of the atmosphere within the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) operational global model by adjusting ... -
Observations and Forecasts from the Landfall of Tropical Cyclones John, Lane, and Paul (2006) over Northwestern Mexico
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)his study focuses on track and intensity changes of three tropical cyclones that, during the season of 2006, developed in the eastern North Pacific basin and made landfall over northwestern Mexico. Observational datasets, ... -
Predicting Hurricane Intensity and Structure Changes Associated with Eyewall Replacement Cycles
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)yewall replacement cycles are commonly observed in tropical cyclones and are well known to cause fluctuations in intensity and wind structure. These fluctuations are often large and rapid and pose a significant additional ... -
Objective Prediction of Warm Season Afternoon Thunderstorms in Northern Taiwan Using a Fuzzy Logic Approach
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)n this study, a fuzzy logic algorithm is developed to provide objective guidance for the prediction of afternoon thunderstorms in northern Taiwan using preconvective predictors during the warm season (May?October) from ... -
Evaluation of the Added Value of Regional Ensemble Forecasts on Global Ensemble Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he regional single-model-based Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International?Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated and compared with the global ECMWF-EPS ... -
Forecast Advisory for the Late Fall Heavy Rainfall/Flood Event in Central Vietnam Developed from Diagnostic Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he formations of heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) events in Vietnam are studied from diagnostic analyses of 31 events during the period 1979?2009. HRF events develop from the cold surge vortices formed around the Philippines. ... -
Near-Term Effects of the Lower Atmosphere in Simulated Northwest Flow Snowfall Forced over the Southern Appalachians
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)orthwest flow snowfall (NWFS) impacts the southern Appalachian Mountains after the upper-level trough has departed from the region, when moist northwesterly flow near the ground is lifted after encountering the mountains. ... -
Development and Evaluation of Mei-Yu Season Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in Taiwan River Basins Based on a Conceptual Climatology Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)sing rain gauge data during 134 mei-yu frontal cases in May?June 1991?2006, a rainfall climatology in relation to the positions of fronts every 0.5° in Taiwan is obtained, showing widespread precipitation with maxima over ...