Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1241-1260 of 3043
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The Relationship between Total Cloud Lightning Behavior and Radar-Derived Thunderstorm Structure
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)otal lightning detection systems have been in development since the mid-1980s and deployed in several areas around the world. Previous studies on total lightning found intra- and intercloud lightning (IC) activity tends ... -
Tornado Damage Estimation Using Polarimetric Radar
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)his study investigates the use of tornadic debris signature (TDS) parameters to estimate tornado damage severity using Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), polarimetric radar data (polarimetric version of the Weather Surveillance ... -
GPS Dropwindsonde and WSR-88D Observations of Tropical Cyclone Vertical Wind Profiles and Their Characteristics
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he characteristics of tropical cyclone vertical wind profiles and their associated wind speed peaks below 1.5 km were examined through the use of a large number of GPS dropwindsondes (GPS sondes) and radar-derived ... -
Accelerating the EnKF Spinup for Typhoon Assimilation and Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for a regional model is often initialized from global analysis products and with initial ensemble perturbations constructed based on the background error covariance used in the ... -
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation in the North Atlantic Basin Using an Improved Deviation Angle Variance Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)his paper describes results from an improvement to the objective deviation angle variance technique to estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones from satellite infrared imagery in the North Atlantic basin. The technique ... -
The Formation Mechanism of a Spring Sea Fog Event over the Yellow Sea Associated with a Low-Level Jet
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)n this paper, a dense sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow Sea (YS) on 9 March 2005 is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model version 3.1.1 (WRF v3.1.1). It is shown that the WRF can reasonably ... -
An Objective High-Resolution Hail Climatology of the Contiguous United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he threat of damaging hail from severe thunderstorms affects many communities and industries on a yearly basis, with annual economic losses in excess of $1 billion (U.S. dollars). Past hail climatology has typically relied ... -
Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at ... -
Exploring Impacts of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warning Decisions
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)apid-scan weather radars, such as the S-band phased array radar at the National Weather Radar Testbed in Norman, Oklahoma, improve precision in the depiction of severe storm processes. To explore potential impacts of such ... -
Determining the Extratropical Transition Onset and Completion Times of Typhoons Mindulle (2004) and Yagi (2006) Using Four Methods
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)our methods for determining the extratropical transition (ET) onset and completion times of Typhoons Mindulle (2004) and Yagi (2006) were compared using four numerically analyzed datasets. The open-wave and scalar frontogenesis ... -
An Analysis of CPC’s Operational 0.5-Month Lead Seasonal Outlooks
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)n analysis and verification of 15 years of Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational seasonal surface temperature and precipitation climate outlooks over the United States is presented for the shortest and most commonly ... -
Predicting Cloud-to-Ground and Intracloud Lightning in Weather Forecast Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)new prognostic, spatially and temporally dependent variable is introduced to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This variable is called the potential electrical energy (Ep). It was used to predict the dynamic ... -
An Assessment of Areal Coverage of Severe Weather Parameters for Severe Weather Outbreak Diagnosis
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he areal extent of severe weather parameters favorable for significant severe weather is evaluated as a means of identifying major severe weather outbreaks. The first areal coverage method uses kernel density estimation ... -
Forecasting Tornado Pathlengths Using a Three-Dimensional Object Identification Algorithm Applied to Convection-Allowing Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)three-dimensional (in space and time) object identification algorithm is applied to high-resolution forecasts of hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH)?a diagnostic that identifies simulated rotating storms?with the goal of ... -
Tuning AutoNowcaster Automatically
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)utoNowcaster (ANC) is an automated system that nowcasts thunderstorms, including thunderstorm initiation. However, its parameters have to be tuned to regional environments, a process that is time consuming, labor intensive, ... -
Displaying Economic Value
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he distinction between forecast quality and economic value in a cost?loss formulation is well known. Also well known is their complex relationship, even with some instances of a reversal between the two, where higher quality ... -
Including Uncertainties of Sea Surface Temperature in an Ensemble Kalman Filter: A Case Study of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)ea surface temperature (SST) plays an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle evolution, but often the uncertainties in SST estimates are not considered in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The lack of uncertainties ... -
Impacts of Model Resolutions and Initial Conditions on Predictions of the Asian Summer Monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)series of 60-day hindcasts by the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is analyzed to understand the impacts of atmospheric model resolutions and initial conditions on predictions ... -
Relative Merit of Model Improvement versus Availability of Retrospective Forecasts: The Case of Climate Forecast System MJO Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)etrospective forecasts of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have been analyzed out to 45 days from 1999 to 2009 with four members (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) each day. The new version of CFS [CFS, version 2 ... -
Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Real-Time High-Resolution Model Evaluation
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)utput from a real-time high-resolution numerical model is used to generate synthetic infrared satellite imagery. It is shown that this imagery helps to characterize model-simulated large-scale precursors to the formation ...