Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1361-1380 of 3043
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Intraseasonal Forecasting of the 2009 Summer and Winter Australian Heat Waves Using POAMA
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)xtreme heat waves occurred over much of southern and eastern Australia during the summer (27 January?8 February) and winter (14?31 August) of 2009. The summer heat wave resulted in many temperature records across southeastern ... -
Hindcasting the January 2009 Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming with Unified Parameterization of Orographic Drag in NOGAPS. Part II: Short-Range Data-Assimilated Forecast and the Impacts of Calibrated Radiance Bias Correction
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his study is Part II of the effort to improve the forecasting of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events by using a version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) that covers the full ... -
Evaluation of Tools Used for Monitoring and Forecasting Flash Floods in the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his paper evaluates, for the first time, flash-flood guidance (FFG) values and recently developed gridded FFG (GFFG) used by the National Weather Service (NWS) to monitor and predict imminent flash flooding, which is the ... -
CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2011) -
Application of a Medium-Range Global Hydrologic Probabilistic Forecast Scheme to the Ohio River Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003?07. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European ... -
A Scale-Selective Data Assimilation Approach to Improving Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts in a Limited-Area Model: A Case Study of Hurricane Felix (2007)
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)ccurately forecasting a tropical cyclone?s (TC) track and intensity remains one of the top priorities in weather forecasting. A dynamical downscaling approach based on the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) method ... -
The Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Current Status and Development
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n 2006, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) in collaboration with the Earth System Research Laboratory and the National Environmental, Satellite, and ... -
Revision of Convection and Vertical Diffusion Schemes in the NCEP Global Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)new physics package containing revised convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s Global Forecast System is described. The shallow convection (SC) scheme ... -
Mesocyclone Evolution Associated with Varying Shear Profiles during the 24 June 2003 Tornado Outbreak
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he morphology of mesocyclones associated with the regional tornado outbreak on 24 June 2003 is examined to illustrate the effects of changing vertical wind profiles. The large-scale environment supported deep moist convection, ... -
Impact of Interactive Aerosol on the African Easterly Jet in the NASA GEOS-5 Global Forecasting System
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he real-time treatment of interactive, realistically varying aerosols in a global operational forecasting system, as opposed to prescribed (fixed or climatologically varying) aerosols, is a very difficult challenge that ... -
Association Rule Data Mining Applications for Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his study applies a data mining technique called association rule mining to the analysis of intensity changes of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). The ?best track? data from the National Hurricane Center and the ... -
Extremal Dependence Indices: Improved Verification Measures for Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Binary Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)erifying forecasts of rare events is challenging, in part because traditional performance measures degenerate to trivial values as events become rarer. The extreme dependency score was proposed recently as a nondegenerating ... -
Lightning and Severe Weather: A Comparison between Total and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Trends
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)any studies over the past several decades have attempted to correlate trends in lightning (e.g., rates, polarity) to severe weather occurrence. These studies mainly used cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning information due to ... -
Bias Correction and Forecast Skill of NCEP GFS Ensemble Week-1 and Week-2 Precipitation, 2-m Surface Air Temperature, and Soil Moisture Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)simple bias correction method was used to correct daily operational ensemble week-1 and week-2 precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The study shows some ... -
Impacts of the High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Distribution on Modeled Snowfall Formation over the Yellow Sea during a Cold-Air Outbreak
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)igh-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) products and idealized SST distributions were used to simulate snowfall over the Yellow Sea during 30?31 December 2007 using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). ... -
The Impacts of Taiwan Topography on the Predictability of Typhoon Morakot’s Record-Breaking Rainfall: A High-Resolution Ensemble Simulation
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)n this study, the impacts of Taiwan topography on the extreme rainfall of Typhoon Morakot and the predictability of this rainfall are examined with a high-resolution (4 km) ensemble simulation using the Advanced Research ... -
Experimental Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using the GFDL 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his paper describes a forecasting configuration of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). HiRAM represents an early attempt in unifying, within a global modeling framework, ... -
Surface Fronts, Troughs, and Baroclinic Zones in the Great Lakes Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)he temporal frequency and spatial distributions of fronts and troughs in the Great Lakes region from a 6-yr period (January 2000?December 2005) are presented. Frontal frequencies indicated that cold fronts were the most ... -
A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)apid intensification (RI) is difficult to forecast, but some progress has been made in developing probabilistic guidance for predicting these events. One such method is the RI index. The RI index is a probabilistic text ... -
Evaluation of IRI’s Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Extreme 15% Tails
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)his paper evaluates the quality of real-time seasonal probabilistic forecasts of the extreme 15% tails of the climatological distribution of temperature and precipitation issued by the International Research Institute for ...