Decision Analysis Applied to Tunnel Exploration Planning. II: Consideration of Uncertainty

Abstract

Tunnel exploration is a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. This paper, Part II, dealing with the exploration problem, discusses the sources of uncertainty in tunnel exploration, and provides techniques to formally incorporate uncertainties into the exploration planning. Part I described the state of uncertainty in geology and exploration reliability using assigned probabilities. These probabilities are, however, uncertain. Construction costs are also uncertain. This paper presents tools with which the decision maker is able to assess the effects of these uncertainties on exploration decisions. Decisions are therefore made based on the value of collecting new, uncertain information through “virtual” exploration prior to actually exploring.