Incorporation of Fault Tree Analysis and Evidential Reasoning in Navigational Risk Assessment of Offshore Wind Farms

Abstract

Quantifying the navigation risk in waters of offshore wind farms (OWFs) using traditional probabilistic methods is difficult due to various impact factors, intricate interactions, and limited accident records. To address this issue, this paper develops a novel risk assessment framework that incorporates fault tree analysis (FTA) with evidential reasoning (ER) approaches. The proposed framework provides a clear and logical structure for evaluating navigational risks in OWF waters. The FTA is used to identify and establish the risk factors that affect navigational safety in OWF waters and their interrelationships. Rules assigning factor weights based on the logical gates in the fault tree (FT) are proposed, enabling the calculation of risk using ER. This research tests the applicability of the proposed framework by using the cases in the OWF waters of the Haitan Strait in Fujian Province. The results indicate a moderate navigation risk level for ships sailing in OWFs water. Additionally, this research can identify significant risk factors influencing the navigation safety in OWFs waters. The proposed framework can also provide valuable insights for port authorities for evaluating navigation risk and improving vessel safety supervision in complex maritime environments.